PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - dgentile (G-NJ) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:2

Prediction Map
dgentile MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
dgentile MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem368
 
Rep170
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep155
 
Ind0
 
Tos51
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+10+100-1-1292358+9
Rep0+1+1-10-10212169-9
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
89483353
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Not much has changed in 9 months from original prediction in February. Changes in picks and analysis below:

MT - A potential pick-up passed on, possibly due to XL pipeline

NE2 - A minor loss due to redistricting. Dropped.

MO,IN - Still my surprise upset picks due to the horrid Republican senate candidates. Reverse coattails.

NC - Considered going with conventional wisdom and giving it to Romney, but late polling shows an Obama resurgence. Tossup.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Prefrence (R-MO) 2012-11-05 @ 16:57:55 prediction Map
Romney has a double digit lead in Missouri, there is absolutely no chance in Hell Obama will win there.

Akin is not going to cost Romney the state, especially when he still has a good shot at winning the senate seat himself.

Indiana will see a slight swing to Obama due to how recent Murdouck's comments were, Indiana will still probably go for Romney by Double Digits.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 234
P 2020 President 51/56 37/56 88/112 78.6% pie 2 168 480T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 1 331 101T423
P 2016 President 42/56 25/56 67/112 59.8% pie 2 26 597T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 15/34 45/68 66.2% pie 1 96 277T362
P 2012 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 2 1 508T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 16/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 34 144T343
P 2010 Senate 26/37 16/37 42/74 56.8% pie 4 48 359T456
P 2008 President 54/56 35/56 89/112 79.5% pie 5 12 247T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 1 29 117T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 3 77 232T465
P 2004 President 46/56 24/56 70/112 62.5% pie 5 76 1629T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 426/485 263/485 689/970 71.0% pie



Alabama Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Arizona Arkansas California California California California Colorado Connecticut Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Maryland Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Virginia Washington Washington Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wisconsin Wyoming

Back to 2012 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved