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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:18

Prediction Map
HarryHayfield Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
HarryHayfield Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem285
 
Rep253
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem233
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos99
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-4-1-74252285-74
Rep+4+1+74000222179+74
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
93493554
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Final Estimate (based on a three day moving average of the RCP national polls and the RCP average of the tossup states) says Obama 285 Romney 253. If anyone would like my final forecasts based on the RCP three day moving average, please send me a PM with your e-mail address and I will send it to you.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2013 Governor 2/2 0/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 11 98T
P 2012 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 18 1 401T
P 2012 Senate 22/33 6/33 28/66 42.4% pie 1 267 334T
P 2012 Governor 8/11 2/11 10/22 45.5% pie 1 30 220
P 2012 Rep Primary 41/52 12/52 53/104 51.0% pie 48 - 64T
P 2011 Governor 2/4 0/4 2/8 25.0% pie 1 33 100T
P 2010 Senate 27/37 13/37 40/74 54.1% pie 3 2 391T
P 2010 Governor 28/37 14/37 42/74 56.8% pie 3 2 230T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 1 41T
P 2008 President 52/56 30/56 82/112 73.2% pie 22 0 442T
P 2008 Senate 30/33 11/33 41/66 62.1% pie 2 8 334T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 5/11 16/22 72.7% pie 1 47 152T
P 2008 Dem Primary 27/52 8/52 35/104 33.7% pie 33 - 127T
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 15/49 56/98 57.1% pie 32 - 21T
P 2007 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 1 65 155T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 12/33 43/66 65.2% pie 7 1 328T
P 2006 Governor 25/36 7/36 32/72 44.4% pie 3 26 301T
P 2004 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 16 1 283T
Aggregate Predictions 457/563 212/563 669/1126 59.4% pie



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