Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:18

Prediction Map
HarryHayfield Map

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
HarryHayfield Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	285
Rep	253
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	233
Rep	206
Ind	0
Tos	99

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-1	-74	25	2	285	-74
Rep	+4	+1	+74	0	0	0	22	2	179	+74
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
93	49	35	5	4

Analysis

Final Estimate (based on a three day moving average of the RCP national polls and the RCP average of the tossup states) says Obama 285 Romney 253. If anyone would like my final forecasts based on the RCP three day moving average, please send me a PM with your e-mail address and I will send it to you.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	18	1	401	T
2012 Senate	22/33	6/33	28/66	42.4%	1	267	334	T
2012 Governor	8/11	2/11	10/22	45.5%	1	30	220
2012 Rep Primary	41/52	12/52	53/104	51.0%	48	-	64	T
2011 Governor	2/4	0/4	2/8	25.0%	1	33	100	T
2010 Senate	27/37	13/37	40/74	54.1%	3	2	391	T
2010 Governor	28/37	14/37	42/74	56.8%	3	2	230	T
2009 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	1	41	T
2008 President	52/56	30/56	82/112	73.2%	22	0	442	T
2008 Senate	30/33	11/33	41/66	62.1%	2	8	334	T
2008 Governor	11/11	5/11	16/22	72.7%	1	47	152	T
2008 Dem Primary	27/52	8/52	35/104	33.7%	33	-	127	T
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	15/49	56/98	57.1%	32	-	21	T
2007 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	1	65	155	T
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	12/33	43/66	65.2%	7	1	328	T
2006 Governor	25/36	7/36	32/72	44.4%	3	26	301	T
2004 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%	16	1	283	T
Aggregate Predictions	455/561	212/561	667/1122	59.4%