Date of Prediction: 2012-10-09 Version:3
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Analysis
The debate not only gave Romney momentum, but has decreased other electoral college maps for Romney. A Pew Poll has Romney leading Obama, 49-45%, but stlll losing the electoral college by a wide margin. But, even more ominous for Romney is the Gallup poll. It is usually accurate in October for predicting the presidential race. Obama leads Romney, 50%-46% among registered voters, but tied among likely voters. It has been wrong 3 times. The results have been wrong only 3 times: 04, 1976, and 1948. Also, each time an incumbent president goes to the people, the crowds are always large, and the incumbent wins. In 1980, and 1992, neither Carter or Bush went to the people. They both had controlled events. Obama's biggest asset is himself. People love seeing their president in person, and, are swayed in voting for him.
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