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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-02 Version:4

Prediction Map
Izixs Map


Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Izixs Map


Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem277
 
Rep180
 
Ind0
 
Tos81
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-2-1-27272332-27
Rep+2+1+27000222179+27
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
105514554
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Only a couple flips since my last map (which was ages ago, the race has been fairly static!), with most the action being in the toss/lean map.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-11-02 @ 22:17:23 prediction Map
Any prediction for Obama to get 330+ EVs is also a prediction that the Dems will retake the House.

The last time I looked at RCP, in its "Top 25 House Seats Most Likely To Flip" there were 10 Dem seats and 15 Repub ones -- meaning that the Dems would gain 5 seats. They need 25 to get Nancy her giant mallet back.

Last Edit: 2012-11-02 @ 22:19:48

 By: Izixs (D-NH) 2012-11-02 @ 23:00:24 prediction Map
Your declaration that a 330+ EV win yields a dem house does not necessarily follow. This is primarily due to the post 2010 redistricting where a good many states acted to shore up Republican gains in the 2010 mid terms. As such, due to gerrymandering, its much more difficult for large swings in the house and such will be true until at least mid decade, and probably later. To over come that threshold, a true land slide would be necessary for the Dems (aka 400+ EV win).

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-11-03 @ 09:43:54 prediction Map
There were large swings in 2006 (+30 seats for the Democrats) and 2010 (+63 seats for the Repubs) -- despite the fact that Repubs dominated re-districting after the 2000 census. The Repubs are now at their highest number of Representatives since the 1947-48 Congress -- and Truman with a narrow victory in 1948 brought something like ... wait, I'll check ... 75 seats! to the Democrats.

 By: Izixs (D-NH) 2012-11-03 @ 12:38:25 prediction Map
2006, 2010, and 1948 are all elections that take place a number of years after redistricting. As such, there is plenty of time for partisan shifts to happen away from the districts gerrymandered the previous redistricting cycle. So your evidence really doesn't make any sense given the context of this election.

 By: Izixs (D-NH) 2012-11-05 @ 21:48:18 prediction Map
Hah, now 538 has caught up to my prediction! Go me!


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 56/56 49/56 105/112 93.8% pie 4 4 4T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 20/33 52/66 78.8% pie 1 4 74T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 4 51T
P 2012 Rep Primary 47/52 23/52 70/104 67.3% pie 27 - 5T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 1 102 12T
P 2010 Senate 25/37 12/37 37/74 50.0% pie 4 100 418T
P 2010 Governor 25/37 13/37 38/74 51.4% pie 2 69 248T
P 2008 President 52/56 47/56 99/112 88.4% pie 14 1 26T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 16/33 48/66 72.7% pie 2 1 172T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 2 257 50T
P 2008 Dem Primary 40/52 19/52 59/104 56.7% pie 12 - 47T
P 2008 Rep Primary 35/49 17/49 52/98 53.1% pie 8 - 43T
P 2007 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 87 102T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 17/33 48/66 72.7% pie 5 15 207T
P 2006 Governor 33/36 16/36 49/72 68.1% pie 5 12 147T
P 2004 President 48/56 26/56 74/112 66.1% pie 20 39 1527T
Aggregate Predictions 484/559 292/559 776/1118 69.4% pie



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