Predictions2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions - CR (--MO) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-02-27 Version:18

Prediction Map
CR MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
CR MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Huntsman0
 
Gingrich4
 
Romney27
 
Paul0
 
Santorum21
 
Cain0
 
Perry0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Huntsman0
 
Gingrich0
 
Romney1
 
Paul0
 
Santorum0
 
Cain0
 
Perry0
 
Other0
 
Tossup51
 

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: CR (--MO) 2012-02-29 @ 23:28:12
Damn! I wanted to change my Wyoming prediction and I forgot the caucus was today. prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-03-01 @ 16:36:03
I did too...I have it listed as uncommitted. My score is likely in the toilet anyway with Maine and Michigan so Im taking it with a grain of salt now.prediction Map

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-03-01 @ 20:48:47
Well, caucus returns have been coming in since February 11th. Got the final result right but just missed the percentage. The county map is fascinating.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-03-01 @ 23:54:36
I know right. It was really strange looking to me too. prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2012-03-06 @ 22:18:27
So far so good tonight, CR. I'm surprised there aren't any comments tonight.prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-03-07 @ 00:47:35
Go Frothy !prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-03-07 @ 02:15:13
It's been a busy day and to be honest I'm surprised my prediction map is holding up for a change. If they call Alaska for Romney (where he is currently in the lead with 33%) then I'll have a perfect sweep for once, lol! Minus percentages of course. prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-03-07 @ 16:08:19
I hear Santorum and Gingrich are going to the RNC over Florida and Arizona moving up their election dates. Both campaigns want the states counted as proportional which could be bad news for Team Mitt if this drags out which its looking like it might.....

LOL.
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-03-07 @ 21:14:29
Rick and Newt can complain to the RNC all they want but the big wigs in the establishment don't want either of those two any where near the nomination so I doubt they will over rule either Florida or Arizona. Not that it couldn't happen but I doubt it.

At this point if Mitt is going to be the nominee he'll just have to be patient until the big winner take all states in April in New York, New Jersey, and California come to save the day. It could still end up in a brokered convention but at this point I could see Mitt gaining the delegates needed by the end of the contests in June.

Now if Newt gets out that would be bad news for Mitt. Santorum would unite the conservative opposition and probably run the table on Romney. That is unless Gingrich stays in just long enough to split up the most conservative states in the South and Midwest.

LOL indeed.
prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-03-07 @ 23:38:58
If Newt does get out before the convention where/whom do the delegates he won go to?......prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-03-08 @ 00:48:58
Now that is the question. Suppose he does get out. Technically those are free delegates that can support whomever they please. Many will go Santorum I'm sure but not all. If they are party big shots they may be more inclined to follow Romney and this would be particularly true if Mitt has anything close to 1144 prior to the convention.

At this point it would do Romney well to just keep steadily gaining delegates and stay in the lead. If Gingrich does get out at some point Team Mitt better hope they are close to 1000 delegates.

But Newt might stay. He's not far behind Santorum in terms of delegates thanks to the proportional system. If he wins in Alabama and Mississippi I don't think he'll choose to leave. Not when he could potentially win Louisiana and Texas with Rick Perry's aid. That's the scenario that in my mind helps Romney out the most because it will bleed off just enough anti-establishment support from Santorum to clear him a small path to the nomination.
prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-03-08 @ 12:08:33
However Santorum is leading in the new polling in Alabama at the time and one can assume Mississippi as well due to proximity. Those polls are local and not listed via this website. Since Gingrich polled 3rd in Tennessee they may be accurate.

This talk of Gingrich rebounding in the southern states I just dont see it, he was only able to win Georgia due to homestate status. He may get out after he loses both southern states to Santorum.

Last Edit: 2012-03-08 @ 12:09:17
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-03-08 @ 17:57:01
Well I even saw a poll today on RCP that had Romney leading in Alabama. Not sure what to make of smaller polls like those however.

But you noted something important. Romney came in second in both Georgia and Tennessee. That tells me that even in a two person race Santorum doesn't have it all locked up (despite his constant whining otherwise). So maybe even without Newt Romney could still win. If he continues to do well out West and on the Eastern Seaboard he might just do it. Of course Rick has a shot too if everything goes just so. And it might.

Yeah I don't see this great southern revival for Newt either. He's not far behind Santorum in the delegate count but I'm just not sure where else he can go. If he wins Alabama and Mississippi I think he'll stay. If he loses them he'll probably get out. Or he might stay just to try to prove some kind of point. I don't know.
prediction Map

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-03-08 @ 22:08:28
Like him or not, I wouldnt underestimate Rick Santorum's strength with the republican base.

The base just depises Mitt Romney and to say he is unpopular in the south would be a huge understatement.
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-03-09 @ 17:29:20
I've seen sighs that some are feeling like Mitt might be the nominee and we may need to make peace with that. Its not much but it is starting to crop up just a little. However, what you said is very accurate. Santorum is only strong because he was the dead last Not Romney after Gingrich fell through and many in the base thought they had no other conservative alternative to Mitt.

I don't doubt Rick's strength but if this keeps up until April it may end up being a case of a little too late. If Romney keeps gaining delegates and even if he does get to 1144 until June, many Republican voters may simply decided he's the only real game in town and back him to end the primary. That is, Santorum may be strong but he might not be able to seal the deal.

I think the fact that Mitt came in second in both Georgia and Tennessee speaks volumes all by itself.
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 51/56 30/56 81/112 72.3% pie 10 3 194T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 5 3 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 4 3 67T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 10 1 158T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 6 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 233 17T153
P 2012 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 25 2 489T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 2 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 5 2 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 17/52 63/104 60.6% pie 29 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 245 37T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 19 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 8 1 106T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 3 1T103
P 2008 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 44 1 702T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 7 1 257T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 232T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 43/52 24/52 67/104 64.4% pie 22 - 23T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 34/49 15/49 49/98 50.0% pie 23 - 55T235
Aggregate Predictions 534/609 307/609 841/1218 69.0% pie


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