Election 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-03-05 Version:8

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	4
Romney	27
Paul	3
Santorum	18
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	2
Romney	11
Paul	0
Santorum	2
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	37

Analysis

Could Ron Paul finally win a state tomorrow?

Could Romney win a southern state?

I'm not ready to call TN or OH for Romney, but both are going to be very close. If Mittens pulls it out in these states, any momentum or slim chance Frothy could gain the nomination will be dashed.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2012-03-12 @ 18:42:22
Tough call on MS & AL. Santorum should have some momentum, and he could split the conservative vote & throw it to Romney. But I'm sticking with Newt. A southerner in the south. May be his last wins, and justification to stay around and muck things up.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%	7	6	434	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	21/35	54/70	77.1%	4	4	101	T	423
2018 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	3	27	132	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	23/36	56/72	77.8%	3	21	94	T	372
2016 President	53/56	22/56	75/112	67.0%	21	1	440	T	678
2016 Senate	28/34	17/34	45/68	66.2%	5	5	277	T	362
2016 Governor	7/12	2/12	9/24	37.5%	1	94	269	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	21/36	55/72	76.4%	4	0	122	T	382
2014 Governor	27/36	17/36	44/72	61.1%	2	16	171	T	300
2012 President	54/56	41/56	95/112	84.8%	9	0	314	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	14/33	46/66	69.7%	1	191	189	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	35/52	12/52	47/104	45.2%	10	-	83	T	231
2010 Senate	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	9	15	116	T	456
2010 Governor	30/37	15/37	45/74	60.8%	1	299	214	T	312
2008 President	54/56	44/56	98/112	87.5%	22	1	41	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	24/33	56/66	84.8%	5	1	14	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	4	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	45/52	21/52	66/104	63.5%	8	-	26	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	43/49	11/49	54/98	55.1%	11	-	31	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	671/752	389/752	1060/1504	70.5%

Links

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