Election 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-03-12 Version:12

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

Confidence States Won

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-03-23 @ 14:56:39
LOL @ a 9.6% accuracy rate... maybe taking off the hack goggles before making this map would have been a good idea...

By: me (I-GA) 2012-03-24 @ 23:21:23
dude, chill. do you really have to find a bad map and rub it in the user's face to get your kicks?

By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-03-25 @ 13:12:36
Seriously though, this guy picked Paul to win 34 states and even now, now that it's clear that Paul is not likely to win anything, he still has Paul winning the vast majority of states. Even for a paulbot, this is extreme.

By: Jerseyrules (I-CA) 2012-03-26 @ 21:18:52
That was before Paul let me down. Had he won Iowa and spent time campaigning, as I thought when I predicted this months ago, it might've been slightly plausible, if a bit exaggerated,

By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-03-28 @ 15:54:36
Two problems with that. The first is that this map was made March 12th, two months after Paul lost Iowa. The second is that he never was going to go anywhere anyway. Had he won Iowa, he probably could finished a close second to Romney in New Hampshrie and have carried a few more caucus states - Maine, Alaska, North Dakota, maybe Washington. But it still wouldn't have changed his complete inability to expand his support outside his libertarian base, and people likely would have just chalked up a Paul victory in Iowa to vote splitting. Even if he had somehow won both Iowa and New Hampshire narrowly (maybe a slight possibility around mid-December) his momentum would still have had no chance of surviving South Carolina and Florida.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-03-29 @ 15:26:27
I am by no means a Ron Paul "fan" but I dont dislike him. I actually am a bit suprised by his undersupport at the polls this year. While I agree with Al I didnt see him going much past the states listed I thought he could at least have had a victory in one of the caucus states. Particularly considering how dismally low the turnout has been and how energized his supporters generally are. You would think they would have had the foundation in some of the smaller caucus states. I was suprised to see him lose Maine and very suprised at his third place showing in Alaska. His supporters really need to realize and come to terms with this.

By: CR (--MO) 2012-03-31 @ 11:53:12
Now I'm not here to criticize anyone but I could have told you long ago Paul wasn't going to do very well. Not with his attitude and positions on a number of things and not with the Republican and conservative base where they are. Were the party more libertarian in its leaning then yes Paul could have done well. So could Gary Johnson. As it stands not so much.

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