Election 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-02 Version:20

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	1
Romney	43
Paul	0
Santorum	8
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	1
Romney	27
Paul	0
Santorum	3
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	21

Analysis

MD, WI, and DC tomorrow. Just a few tweaks. I don't think Santorum is going to be able to hang on until the end of May. Right now I have him sticking it out until about mid-May. But I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he gets out after losing Wisconsin to avoid the possibility that he would then lose his home state of PA a few weeks later, as the coalescence around Romney seems to finally have started happening. We'll see.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: me (I-GA) 2012-04-04 @ 17:03:36
I think PA just might be his last stand. I think he is too stubborn to drop out now.

By: CR (--MO) 2012-04-07 @ 12:13:40
I'd have to agree. If he loses Pennsylvania or if its close I think that even if he doesn't drop out he'll be rendered irrelevant. Most of the party and now, for the first time that I've seen, portions of the base are starting to as Nik said coalesce around Romney.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	1	2	108	T	115
2022 Senate	30/35	22/35	52/70	74.3%	7	1	243	T	305
2022 Governor	30/36	21/36	51/72	70.8%	7	1	228	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	7	1	T	118
2020 President	46/56	30/56	76/112	67.9%	5	6	655	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	23/35	54/70	77.1%	4	4	101	T	423
2020 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	3	6	211	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	3	14	T	192
2018 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	8	0	106	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	29/36	61/72	84.7%	7	2	6	T	372
2017 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	2	98	T	149
2016 President	52/56	33/56	85/112	75.9%	8	0	66	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	20/34	51/68	75.0%	6	0	60	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	8/12	18/24	75.0%	6	0	3	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	4	1	8	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	27/36	62/72	86.1%	16	0	4	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	20/36	51/72	70.8%	16	0	22	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	4	1	1	T	153
2012 President	47/56	29/56	76/112	67.9%	11	1	702	T	760
2012 Senate	23/33	10/33	33/66	50.0%	5	1	319	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	179	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	43/52	20/52	63/104	60.6%	25	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	2	34	12	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	24/37	57/74	77.0%	20	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	20	1	59	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	10	1	T	103
2008 President	45/56	28/56	73/112	65.2%	21	0	791	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	22/33	52/66	78.8%	9	0	81	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	9	0	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	39/52	25/52	64/104	61.5%	15	-	33		271
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	22/49	63/98	64.3%	14	-	7	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	51	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	21/33	51/66	77.3%	9	1	133	T	465
2006 Governor	36/36	23/36	59/72	81.9%	9	1	36	T	312
2004 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	18	1	49	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	860/994	582/994	1442/1988	72.5%

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