Comments History
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hideVersion: 26
Ehhh, what evers.
Version: 25
Just updating slightly. *shrugs*
Version: 24
Tweaking for tomorrow's events.
Version: 23
With the Frothy one out, its Romney's world.
Version: 22
Looks like the end of Rick "Frothy" Santorum.
Version: 21
Minor tweaks.
Version: 20
Romney's in a good position in Wisconsin. So gotta give it to him.
Version: 19
Some adjustments.
Version: 18
Update on Illinois. Romney will probably get it.
Version: 17
Tweaking I am.
Version: 16
Might flip OH to Romney before things end tomorrow. But we'll see.
Version: 15
Washington + Super Tuesday.
I was expecting Mittens to be doing better in WA... but then again its crap to test a caucus like this one. I expect it to be fairly close given its history of surprise come from behind surges of support for fundie-esq candidates.
Version: 14
Pre-AZ and MI update. Lets see if my gut about Michigan is correct or not.
Version: 13
I see Santorum having a path to the nomination at this point that's slightly more viable than Romney's. Gingrich is done unless he can pull off a miracle again.
Also... I'm the top ranked prediction person despite missing Colorado? Blorf? Really?!?
Version: 12
Updating Feb. numbers.
Version: 11
Mittens beats 50 in NV me thinks.
Version: 10
Updating through next month's contests. Will adjust the rest as things move forward.
Version: 9
Gingrich update for SC. I think he'll pull a win there.
Version: 8
Santorum surges from behind! (the musical)
Mittens gets a surprising 3rd in Iowa which Paul in 2nd. This weakens him in NH and ends up causing enough doubt to have him loose in Florida. Paul's 2nd place win keeps his fans going to the polls for him to pull off some wins and to be relevant for quite a while. Mittens drops out around Indiana but manages to be a factor in the Utah primary. (he and Paul get around 30%)
Version: 7
The Newt has a relatively easy win scenario. Around Illinois Mittens drops out after obviously not having the momentum or delegates to keep going. Paul cries a lot after coming in a strong second in Iowa and then not going anywhere.
Version: 6
Ron Paul Revolution, the Map!
Paul's surprise first place finish in Iowa and close second in New Hampshire spurs him to being the latest in the series of media darlings. Perry's unconvincing win of South Carolina demonstrates his continued weakness despite a resurgence of life after the Gingrich boomlet. Paul's surge peaks in Florida as he pulls off another upset win. After mini-Tuesday, its just him and Mittens. Paul sweeps up most the Anti-Romney voters but also cuts into some areas that Romney was previously mopping up as Paul's base supporters tend to come from a wide range of regions, not just the conservative reaches of the country. This topples Mittens mid nomination contest as it becomes obvious that Paul's winning streak isn't going to let up.
Version: 5
Newt-mentum!
Gingrich's win in Iowa propels his late surge campaign to a win in South Carolina. After mini-Tuesday, all but Romney and Paul have left the field and the two slug it out till the bitter end. Gingrich gets the nomination after a hard fought battle.
Version: 4
The full blown chaos primary season: (very unrealistic)
Occupy the Caucuses manages that it would be more effective to show up at the caucus as opposed to just occupy campaign headquarters. They manage to organize behind either a candidate that no one's heard of, or more likely, undecided. They win the caucus and manage to inspire similar efforts in all other states that have caucuses, and even have most of them be successful.
The net result on the primary is that Romney's momentum is highly questioned after his NH win. Cain still has a hard core support base by this point despite the numerous scandals (harassment, illegal financing of his campaign via a non-profit, ect) while the a non-Romney alternative (marked Perry here, but just as likely Gingrich or even Bachmann) picks up parts of Cain's support.
The net result is Romney never really pulling away with the nomination, generic alternative Republican managing to come in a strong second, Cain holding his own long enough to justify not dropping out before the convention, and a little to many undecideds that have loyalties not to any of the candidates at best, and against all of them at the worst. (well, in my view better! :-p But opinion aside... back to analysis!)
The convention is a mad house. Boos during almost all speeches from the occupy faction generally put off the rest of the convention. By the second day delegations are being barred from the convention floor, resulting in sit-ins at all convention entrances. Cain likely throws his weight behind non-Romney person in exchange for the VP spot, because no body likes Mittens. But... they might yet come up short due to so many delegates being locked out. Multiple rounds of ballots later someone decides that the folks outside need to be let in to cast their votes. The campaigns hope that they can sway enough of them to get the edge, but in the end the occupy folks refuse both camps outright and the chaos continues.
By the final day of the convention, the nominee is not yet known. Finally non-Romney dumps Cain and accepts Romney's vp spot. Cain's folks try to save face by protest voting with the occupy folks, and it ends some careers in politics in the process.
All the same, the spectacle prevents a cohesive message from being formed for the Republican ticket and demonstrates the Republicans as willing to bend the rules, even ones they wrote themselves, against people they don't like, which ruins any trust they have with non-super partisans.
Version: 3
Mittens vs the hurri-Cain.
Despite a last minute surge by Gingrich in Iowa, Cain manages to best Romney for the top spot. As the race gets to South Carolina, Perry is effectively a no show as far as support, and thus the default southerner ends up with a win there. This is followed by a very narrow win by Romney in Florida that would be the beginning of a long drawn out campaign between Romney and Cain that isn't quite decided until the last few contests.
Cain, being rather new to how presidential nominating politics is supposed to run, doesn't drop out, instead going into the convention without a majority of the delegates (but close to it), hoping to snag enough Romney supporters to his side on the floor. The convention is contentious and no body is happy in the end, but Romney ends up with the nomination, but is forced to pick Cain as his VP. The relationship between them is already quite strained, and thus the fall campaign was not easy on either.
Version: 2
Republican nightmare scenario. With the early states yielding unconvincing and narrow wins for Bachmann (IA), Romney (NH), Paul (NV), Cain (SC), and Perry (FL), the nomination contest spirals out of control as none of the top five appears to be moving into a solid lead. Romney ends up with the most delegates, but hardly enough for the nomination and a brokered convention yield chaos.
I'm not saying this will happen, but mostly trying to paint the most plausible way for the ultimate disaster for the GOP to come about. A slightly less far fetched setup would be Romney vs. Perry with Paul (or someone else who hates both) holding just enough delegates to be king maker.
NOTE: If you comment something silly that demonstrates you didn't read this analysis I'll laugh and call you a meat popsicle.
Version: 1
A Romney win after Perry holds out till April. Perry is weakened starting out by his loss in Iowa but remains relevant for a while.
Not sure how the delegate proportions would be in this setup really.