For the time being, limiting the analysis to the initial States, as these first results will determine the next ones.

Iowa : Gingrich is going down quickly and Paul seems narrowly ahead. Looks like it will be a dead heat between Paul and Romney, but Paul is more likely to benefit from the momentum.

NH : Hard to see Romney losing now that its most serious contender seems gone. However, I'll wait for Iowa before giving any certainty to my prediction.

SC and Florida : Gingrich had a solid lead in previous polls, but IA and NH will most likely ruin his momentum and he might very way lose there too.

Romney in the low 40s in all recent NH polls.

It is doubtful that Gingrich will win SC nowadays after his Iowa routing. That said, I don't think Romney could win it either. This needs some poll to be backed, but my guts say Santorum is now ahead there (he might be in FL too).

Romney now slight favorite in Iowa (though both Santorum and Paul have decent chances to win). New FL poll gives Romney a slight edge in FL too.

For the time being, limiting the analysis to the initial States, as these first results will determine the next ones.

Iowa : Gingrich is going down quickly and Paul seems narrowly ahead. Looks like it will be a dead heat between Paul and Romney, but Paul is more likely to benefit from the momentum.

NH : Hard to see Romney losing now that its most serious contender seems gone. However, I'll wait for Iowa before giving any certainty to my prediction.

SC and Florida : Gingrich had a solid lead in previous polls, but IA and NH will most likely ruin his momentum and he might very way lose there too.