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Date of Prediction: 2015-06-29 Version:6
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Hillary vs. Generic Republican as of June 29, 2015. No VP candidate mentioned. This is an update to map version number 4. In this particular scenario Obama doesn't hurt Hillary much if any at all, and the gay marriage and Confederate flag issues, along with the economy and foreign policy issues as well, just minimally. However it still could hurt her enough in a very close state to cost her a state especially the southern "swing states" like VA, NC, and FL and perhaps OH too. As of now though I have it not costing her VA and yes even NC. But it still very well may. I also have us Dems doing much better expected in KY and AR, where she's hanging in there right now despite Obama's unpopularity in both states. If that's true I'll probably have to add LA as well. I have my home state of WV at 60 percent but it's a 50/50 possibility that Hillary might keep the Republican percentage here below 60 perception. It's kind of weird that Hillary is actually polling much better in KY than WV because KY was always redder (bluer on this site) than WV until 2012 where WV was actually 3 points more Republican than KY this time. However eastern KY which is just like WV went strongly against Obama as well. However Obama didn't lose all that much in KY west of Lexington. It seems like the anti-Democratic tide in KY is much less Lexington westward than in eastern KY, which is kind of ironic since eastern KY was always much more Democratic than the rest of the state in the past but it's just like WV now. I have Hillary losing by just a lean margin but I sadly might be too bullish on that unfortunately, but primarily because of those eastern Kentucky "DINOS." I still think Hillary will almost defintely crack 40 percent in KY if this holds and my "division" and "Hillary shocking blowout loss" maps aren't correct. If those scenarios are right and this is wrong then it's at least 50/50 Hillary won't crack 40 percent in KY in the "division" map and sadly an almost guaranteed lock Hillary won't crack 40 percent in KY in the "Hillary blowout loss" scenario. If KY is lean then AR is definitely lean as well because Hillary will probably do at least somewhat better in AR than in KY because of her prior connections in AR. NC and FL are both dead heat 50/50 tossups right now. Any combination is possible right now. Rather surprisingly Hillary is actually polling better in NC than FL right now and that probably will stand if either Jeb or Rubio is the nominee. Otherwise FL will probably be at least slightly more Democratic than NC. In this scenario it's 50/50 as whether my home state of WV will go 60 percent Republican or not. The only way Hillary probably doesn't lose 60 percent here is if I'm overhyping the Confederate flag, gay marriage, guns, and especially the coal issues. Coal and guns will still probably be the top two issues here in WV as always but "values" issues resonate very strongly here as well especially in the southern part of the state my neck of the woods. Sad but true.
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