PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Predictions - deleteduser (I-WV) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2015-07-04 Version:11

Prediction Map
deleteduser MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
deleteduser MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem217
 
Rep321
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem166
 
Rep244
 
Ind0
 
Tos128
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-90-115182217-115
Rep+90+115000243206+115
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Hillary vs. Generic Republican shocking Hillary blowout loss map as of Independence Day July 4, 2015. No VP candidate listed. Nothing major has changed except maybe a few minor changed. The Confederate Flag, gay marriage, the "Dukes of Hazzard" brouhaha (yes Southerners do even vote on stuff like that believe it or not), the perception of a bad economy, and also the bad perception of Obama's foreign policy as well, the worst race relations since the 1960s (I now think a "blacks vs. whites" race war and/or Civil War II is likely if not imminent right now I hope and pray I'm wrong) along with guns and other "values" issues are still hurting Hillary big time and in this scenario especially cost us Democrats NC, FL, and probably VA as well. I still think this is very much possible and that Obama can still hurt Hillary big time. If this happened in 2012 instead of today 2016 Obama would have blown out of the water no question about it. The South is most likely gone too for good including NC and FL, and probably VA too, even for Hillary. I hope I'm wrong but I think that Obama will hurt Hillary big time. But then again I live in southern West Virginia where Obama's approval ratings are probably in the teens right now, I might be overhyping the white evangelical effect but according to my observations here in WV where there are a ton of them. I don't think I am sad to say they appear to be more motivated this election than I've ever seen them in my lifetime. I'm actually a white evangelical myself and I attend a white Pentecostal church and I'm probably the only one in my entire church that will vote for the Democratic nominee in 2016, and they appear more motivated this year than ever before to vote than I've ever seen them in my entire lifetime yes even against Hillary believe it or not, and they appear a lot more motivated than the Democratic voters are right now, at least according to my observations, than I've seen before in my entire life. My very own family and the few friends I have are solidly against me too and all plan to vote Republican and against Hillary in 2016 except for me. Obama is just very fortunate that wasn't the case in 2012 it is this year 2016 instead. Hillary could be hurt by President Obama's problems and yes Bernie Sanders could still hurt her too. It now looks like Jeb Bush might actually be the front-runner right now for the Republicans despite his family's former problems. I don't want another Bush but that looks very possible if not likely right now unfortunately. Hillary could have been challenged even more with a "non-Socialist" 20 years younger charismatic version of Sanders with similar viewpoints but it appears she got very lucky this time unlike 2008 when Obama suddenly came out of nowhere. It also doesn't look like Sanders will resonate with non-white voters the same way Obama did black voters especially, at least for now. The Republican nominee whomever that is will be a huge factor as well in 2016 Bush and yes trump too are doing much better in the polls than I ever thought they would. If the election were held today it probably be sad to say a "Clinton vs. Bush" race yet again (sad but true I hate that too but it looks very possible if not likely yet again sad to say). I'm still down myself we have more presidential candidates than ever before and yet every single one of them on both sides of the aisle suck except Hillary, and I'm really not that enthused by her either she's just the "least of all evils" choice. Kasich is probably the best Republican candidate right now but it doesn't look like he's going to resonate with the Republican base either white evangelicals especially. This map is only possible if my prior analysis is correct (which it very well may not be) and white evangelicals Pentecostals especially turn out big like I think they will this time, but that's not 100 percent set in stone either. It's still very, very early and Election Day is still 15 months away and that's an eternity in politics as we all well know by now. Wait and see as always.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 33/35 24/35 57/70 81.4% pie 48 75 124T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 20/36 55/72 76.4% pie 52 75 173T272
P 2021 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 19 7 1T118
P 2020 President 55/56 38/56 93/112 83.0% pie 193 6 260T684
P 2020 Senate 33/35 22/35 55/70 78.6% pie 52 4 66T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 33 6 147T293
P 2019 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 6 3 104T192
P 2018 Senate 33/35 24/35 57/70 81.4% pie 135 0 24T483
P 2018 Governor 34/36 21/36 55/72 76.4% pie 66 2 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 23/56 74/112 66.1% pie 290 1 473T678
P 2014 Senate 35/36 20/36 55/72 76.4% pie 22 13 122T382
P 2012 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 85 2 401T760
P 2011 Governor 4/4 3/4 7/8 87.5% pie 5 36 2T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 63 0 63T456
P 2008 President 53/56 43/56 96/112 85.7% pie 167 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 21 7 117T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 16 0 50T264
P 2007 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 4 27 135T167
Aggregate Predictions 514/541 337/541 851/1082 78.7% pie


Alabama Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Arizona Arkansas California California California California Colorado Connecticut Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Maryland Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Virginia Washington Washington Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wisconsin Wyoming

Back to 2016 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved