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Date of Prediction: 2015-07-05 Version:12
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Hillary vs. Generic Republican as of July 5, 2015. No VP candidate listed. My latest "division" map between red (blue on here) states especially in the South vs. blue (red on here) states. No change in states except CO this except the percentages are not quite as large this time. Before the Confederate Flag and gay marriage issues I thought that Hillary would win by a decent margin but I think it will be much closer now. Actually I am still not sure as to much that will hurt her just yet, and I'm not sure about the percentages either. If it does resonate with voters in the Republican states more then I think she'll definitely lose NC and probably VA and FL as well. OH and PA though northern states could also be tricky since there are quite a few of these types of voters here especially in OH. If it doesn't though she should be okay except perhaps for NC where even a few of these voters could keep NC in the Republican column in a very inelastic 50/50 purple state. VA would probably still go for her but the margin would still be reduced by a small amount, while in FL it depends upon how much it resonates in the normally Republican northern FL Pensacola-Jacksonville area. It could actually end up helping her somewhat in close but usually currently slightly leaning Democratic states CO and IA as well, again depending upon how people in states like these react to this as well. This also depends upon the exact sentiment too: whether normally Republican states especially in the South take these issues more seriously or whether people in the normally Democratic states will as well. I'm 95 percent certain these will more likely affect the normally Republican states the Deep South especially than they will in the normally Democratic states. If that's true Hillary likely had no chance in the South anyway, except it could her some in the Southern "swing states" like NC, and possibly if not probably VA, and FL as well. OH and PA could be still be tricky though OH especially, and perhaps CO and IA as well in the other direction in favor of Hillary. Wait and see as always!
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