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Date of Prediction: 2015-07-31 Version:36
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Hillary vs. Trump worst case Hillary scenario as of July 31, 2015. No VP candidate listed as of now. Could this possibly happen? Only if Trump continues his surprising rise in the polls, Hillary continues her surprising drop in the polls (I figure she might lose some in the polls but it's kind of more than I expected right now), the Confederate flag and gay marriage issues resonate stronger than we think especially in the Southern swing states, race relations continue to be bad, Obama's approval ratings are lower than normal, the economy is mediocre, and the Iran deal is not as good as originally advertised slightly before and on Election Day. It's going to take a lot for Trump to win and Hillary to lose but that scenario I just listed above is now more possible than I previously thought. Hillary can still win if she carries one of OH, VA, FL, or less likely NC. Just one, which is very possible in this scenario. Losing one or both of CO and IA still wouldn't hurt her if she did that. If she carried both CO and IA she'd still win, even though that now seems much less likely than it was just one short week ago. Trump would need a lot to go his way as well. He'd need a strong VP candidate too probably a lot more than Hillary would. That could be an issue too believe it or not if the establishment of the Republican Party tries to stonewall his campaign, discouraging some very decent candidates in the process. That could actually be an underrated issue believe it or not if Trump selects a weak VP candidate, or a strong one instead. Watch out for that too. Wait and see as always!
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