PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Predictions - deleteduser (I-WV) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2015-08-28 Version:55

Prediction Map
deleteduser MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
deleteduser MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem257
 
Rep281
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem216
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos116
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-50-75222257-75
Rep+50+75000243206+75
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Sadly the politics of the WDBJ7 shooting in Roanoke VA could hurt us Dems big time in arguably the most crucial swing state in the nation in the 2016 presidential election, and probably other key swing states as well. I say that because people here in southern WV are very, very angry right now and racial tensions here are worse than I've ever, ever seen before in my entire lifetime, and I'm 100 percent certain it's the same way if not worse in our neighbors in southwestern VA the the Roanoke, Lynchburg, Danville, and Martinsville areas especially, and most likely on Virginia Tech campus as well. We Dems were already going to get crushed west of Lynchburg there but it's really going to be bad now. We do need to hold our own there plus win the traditionally Democratic parts of VA like the Washington DC suburbs of course and the Richmond and Hampton Roads areas as well. Blacks and other minority turnouts' are keytoo. We'll have to see if this still resonates on Election Day 2016 like it is now. It will almost certainly hurt us Dems in the other key swing state of NC as well and probably take away any chance we have there. It could hurt us in OHIO OHIO OHIO (looking more and more like the 2nd most important swing state now) too there is at least a small VA-OH there especially in southern OH. VIRGINIA VIRGINIA VIRGINIA right now is huge no question about it. Also the "270 firewall" doesn't mean a darn thing if we Dems don't hold on to VA. I'd now say that it's a good bet that Tim Kaine will the be Dem VP pick doesn't matter whom the Democratic nominee is whether it be Hillary, Bernie, or Biden just because of VA and VA alone. Again just more proof that anything and everything can happen daily in politics. Wait and see as always.


Prediction History
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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 33/35 24/35 57/70 81.4% pie 48 75 124T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 20/36 55/72 76.4% pie 52 75 173T272
P 2021 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 19 7 1T118
P 2020 President 55/56 38/56 93/112 83.0% pie 193 6 260T684
P 2020 Senate 33/35 22/35 55/70 78.6% pie 52 4 66T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 33 6 147T293
P 2019 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 6 3 104T192
P 2018 Senate 33/35 24/35 57/70 81.4% pie 135 0 24T483
P 2018 Governor 34/36 21/36 55/72 76.4% pie 66 2 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 23/56 74/112 66.1% pie 290 1 473T678
P 2014 Senate 35/36 20/36 55/72 76.4% pie 22 13 122T382
P 2012 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 85 2 401T760
P 2011 Governor 4/4 3/4 7/8 87.5% pie 5 36 2T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 63 0 63T456
P 2008 President 53/56 43/56 96/112 85.7% pie 167 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 21 7 117T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 16 0 50T264
P 2007 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 4 27 135T167
Aggregate Predictions 514/541 337/541 851/1082 78.7% pie


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