|
Date of Prediction: 2015-10-07 Version:78
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Clinton/Kaine vs. Trump/Carson I can actually see Trump taking PA and NH, but still losing CO and possibly AZ too only because of Trump's Hispanic problem and that alone. VA would also be a very close win for the Dems I think in this scenario as well only because of Kaine and him alone swaying just enough voters to keep VA in the Dem column. I think Trump is the only GOP candidate where this map is possible. PA, NH, IA, CO, and VA even with Kaine all are razor thin close in this scenario, perhaps OH too. FL and OH sadly look out of reach for us Dems because of those being Rubio's and Kasich's home states respectively. Also NV is out of reach now for Republicans because of Trump's Hispanic problem too. Sadly for us Dems NC is becoming out of reach with every new poll showing us getting weaker and weaker down there. Right now I think it's Trump vs. Rubio as far as the GOP primary is concerned, but don't rule Carson or Fiorina completely out either. Carson and Fiorina are still doing extremely well in the polls Carson especially. Carson, Cruz, and Fiorina are Trump's best choices for VP now. I favor Carson as of now because of his good poll numbers and strength among evangelicals but that could easily change as well. Trump might need a more moderate Republican outsider to help him in those key Rust Belt "swing states" Carson might be very weak in those. However Trump's problem is getting an establishment Republican to agree to be his VP pick in the first place, and that could very well hurt him there, especially in OH and IA both which are razor thin close right now. Also right now unless something changes Rubio might very well be the only establishment candidate capable of winning the Republican primary. As far as the Dems are concerned it really looks like a Hillary vs. Biden race if Biden decides to enter it. While I like Bernie Sanders his support has somewhat leveled off in the past week to 10 days, and I just don't think the American people even rank and file Dems are ready for a "socialist" candidate. Notice I placed "socialist" in quotation marks Sanders isn't nearly as liberal it now looks like than even I originally thought he was. My next map will be Clinton/Kaine vs. Rubio/Kasich if I can remember to do so. I still think Hillary is the odds on choice to win the Democratic primary as of now especially since Sanders' support has leveled off recently. It's still yet to be determined if Biden will even run and also what chances he has of winning the Dem primary his chances are actually a lot more than I thought they would be as well he could even end up winning this thing believe or not. I think Hillary needs Kaine to carry VA. But whether Kaine can help her in OH, PA, and IA remains to be seen. Perhaps she needs a Midwesterner too she is actually doing poorly in the Rust Belt right now and if she even loses one of MN, WI, and MI, along with Northeastern Rust Belt state PA she could be in serious trouble too. And Kasich as a VP could actually help the Republicans big time too in those key Midwestern battleground states as well. Biden rather surprisingly to me is a stronger general election candidate than Hillary it now looks like. Again that remains to be determined as well. Whether Rubio can get enough Hispanic support to beat Hillary is yet to be seen she is still every popular among rank and file Hispanic voters. Still the primaries are still several months away and anything and everything can happen in politics as we all know so well right and anything and everything can happen.Wait and see as always!
Prediction History
Comments History
- show
Version History Member Comments User's Predictions
Links
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2022 Senate
2022 Governor
2021 Governor
2020 President
2020 Senate
2020 Governor
2019 Governor
2018 Senate
2018 Governor
2016 President
2014 Senate
2012 President
2011 Governor
2010 Senate
2008 President
2008 Senate
2008 Governor
2007 Governor
Back to 2016 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home