Election 2016 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2015-11-26 Version:108

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	288
Rep	250
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	227
Rep	206
Ind	0
Tos	105

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	0	-44	24	2	288	-44
Rep	+3	0	+44	0	0	0	24	3	206	+44
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Happy Thanksgiving Day all my friends. The most likely 2016 Democratic victory scenario as of today Thanksgiving Day November 26, 2015. It looks like the "Rust Belt" might very well decide it all this election. Watch the "West Virginia effect" in 2016 I know I sound like a "broken record" but OH, PA, and VA are all very huge states in 2016. Wait and see as always!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: edwardsna (R-NY) 2015-11-26 @ 20:05:26
I could not agree with you more Bluemcdowell,on Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania(:

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2015-11-27 @ 09:43:38
Yes OH, PA, and VA are crucial to both parties right now. The same is true for MN, WI, and MI. They too could either way. Perhaps NH, IA, and NV as well. Maybe but not as likely AZ and CO, and only if Trump is the nominee due to his problems with Hispanics right now. Wait and see as always!

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2015-12-07 @ 07:02:25
The economy is humming in MN with a 1.9 billion surplus and both parties talking tax rebate. Democrats are 5-10 point favorites here, If MN goes GOP so will Penn., Ohio, Virginia and Iowa and Colorado and the election is to the GOP. That seems unlikely from my perspective in Central GOP leaning MN. The GOP party here is literally bankrupt without funds for the general election.<br /> <br /> Any win of less than 100,000 votes would surprise me by the DFL over the GOP. Not having voted GOP since the Nixon landslide of 1972 things seem fine with the normal angst with terrorism.

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2015-12-07 @ 17:42:16
Yes MN should stay Dem dnul222 but the polls, at least most of them right now, have it as a virtual tossup. Of course I might be giving too much credence to the polls as always. In the case of MN it's definitely "wait and see as always!"

By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2015-12-07 @ 17:44:25
Yes you're right dnul222 it is true that if MN goes Republican then it's a 99.99 percent possibility that the GOP will win the whole darn election nationwide as well, probably by a significantly large margin too. Last Edit: 2015-12-07 @ 18:58:05

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	48	75	124	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	20/36	55/72	76.4%	52	75	173	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	19	7	1	T	118
2020 President	55/56	38/56	93/112	83.0%	193	6	260	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	22/35	55/70	78.6%	52	4	66	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	33	6	147	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	6	3	104	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	135	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	34/36	21/36	55/72	76.4%	66	2	122	T	372
2016 President	51/56	23/56	74/112	66.1%	290	1	473	T	678
2014 Senate	35/36	20/36	55/72	76.4%	22	13	122	T	382
2012 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	85	2	401	T	760
2011 Governor	4/4	3/4	7/8	87.5%	5	36	2	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	63	0	63	T	456
2008 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%	167	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	21	7	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	16	0	50	T	264
2007 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	4	27	135	T	167
Aggregate Predictions	514/541	337/541	851/1082	78.7%

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