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Date of Prediction: 2016-10-13 Version:2

Prediction Map
dgentile MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
dgentile MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem402
 
Rep136
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep133
 
Ind0
 
Tos73
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+6+1+70000272332+70
Rep000-6-1-70182136-70
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
67392332
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Oct 13 Changes:<br /> <br /> UT => Dem. -- LDS is anti-Trump; McMullin & Clinton tossup<br /> AZ => Dem. -- Same LDS factor as UT plus record high Latino turnout<br /> NE2 => Dem. -- Just basic disgust as Trump goes nova<br /> AK => ??? -- Could go any way, possibly Lib.<br /> <br /> Trump continues to offend; people more disgusted than disinterested and fratricide cripples Republicans up and down ballot.<br /> WikiLeaks' Oct. surprise is that Clinton is skilled politician.<br /> Ralph Nader is urging people not to go Green.<br /> <br /> Original Analysis (3/15/2016):<br /> Obama 2008 Plus --<br /> MO, IN - Both borderline in 2008<br /> NC, GA - Strong Black turnout, disinterested White vote<br /> AZ, FL - strong divide on immigration, high turnout<br />


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 238
P 2020 President 51/56 37/56 88/112 78.6% pie 2 168 480T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 1 331 101T423
P 2016 President 42/56 25/56 67/112 59.8% pie 2 26 597T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 15/34 45/68 66.2% pie 1 96 277T362
P 2012 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 2 1 508T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 16/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 34 144T343
P 2010 Senate 26/37 16/37 42/74 56.8% pie 4 48 359T456
P 2008 President 54/56 35/56 89/112 79.5% pie 5 12 247T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 1 29 117T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 3 77 232T465
P 2004 President 46/56 24/56 70/112 62.5% pie 5 76 1629T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 426/485 263/485 689/970 71.0% pie



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