Election 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-05-03 Version:20

Prediction Map

Gendral Map

Prediction Key

Confidence Map

Gendral Map

Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Kasich	1
Bush	0
Rubio	2
Cruz	19
Trump	30
Carson	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Kasich	0
Bush	0
Rubio	1
Cruz	5
Trump	16
Carson	0
Other	0
Tossup	30

Analysis

Trump is now the slight favorite in IN. Depending on his margin there, I will do a massive readjustment of the remaining states tomorrow.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy		Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	35/35	31/35	66/70	94.3%		2	2	1	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	24/36	58/72	80.6%		2	2	104	T	272
2020 President	51/56	36/56	87/112	77.7%		6	6	502	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	19/35	49/70	70.0%		5	4	309	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%		3	6	51	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%		3	4	35	T	192
2018 Senate	32/35	25/35	57/70	81.4%		6	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	26/36	58/72	80.6%		6	3	56	T	372
2016 President	47/56	29/56	76/112	67.9%		6	1	409	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	20/34	50/68	73.5%		8	1	89	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%		3	0	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%		4	0	8	T	112
2014 Senate	32/36	25/36	57/72	79.2%		4	1	82	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	16/36	45/72	62.5%		4	1	145	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%		2	14	17	T	153
2012 President	56/56	47/56	103/112	92.0%		8	1	26	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	24/33	55/66	83.3%		5	1	20	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%		2	1	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	44/52	23/52	67/104	64.4%		30	-	16	T	231
2010 Senate	35/37	25/37	60/74	81.1%		1	2	54	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	23/37	58/74	78.4%		1	2	74	T	312
2008 President	53/56	46/56	99/112	88.4%		3	0	26	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	17/33	49/66	74.2%		2	0	144	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%		1	3	86	T	264
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	23/33	56/66	84.8%		6	7	31	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	22/36	57/72	79.2%		8	7	50	T	312
2004 President	51/56	34/56	85/112	75.9%		1	162	706	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	804/877	564/877	1368/1754	78.0%

Links

	Republican Presidential Primary Predictions - Most Recent
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