Election 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2015-11-26 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Kasich	0
Bush	0
Rubio	0
Cruz	1
Trump	44
Carson	6
Other	1

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Kasich	0
Bush	0
Rubio	0
Cruz	0
Trump	38
Carson	5
Other	1
Tossup	8

Analysis

Basically, I took the numbers from the most recent polls and subtracted "undecided" and then used the person with the most persentage, and devided that by what was left. For any state that has not been polled I used the average of 30% Trump, high confidence (based on recent national polls). Also, confidence is based on the x<=2%, 2%<x<10%, x>=10% (or greater scale), so things with high confidence showed the frontrunner 10% or more above second place.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	34/35	31/35	65/70	92.9%	6	0	3	T	305
2022 Governor	33/36	31/36	64/72	88.9%	6	0	5	T	272
2020 President	55/56	40/56	95/112	84.8%	15	5	179	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	22/35	54/70	77.1%	13	3	101	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	6	5	51	T	293
2018 Senate	32/35	25/35	57/70	81.4%	3	1	24	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	28/36	61/72	84.7%	2	3	6	T	372
2016 President	49/56	30/56	79/112	70.5%	25	1	280	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	21/34	53/68	77.9%	4	0	16	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	7/12	16/24	66.7%	7	0	25	T	279
Aggregate Predictions	320/346	242/346	562/692	81.2%

User Info

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