I think it will be closer than most the polls indicate, but TN looks like it will go in Corker's favor at the moment.

NJ is lean

Webb has now taken a lead in several polls. Last year in the Govenor's race the race was close through much of it despite kilgore's foot in mouth disease, but still favored him. Then a brutal attack ad (Hiler) backfired and Kaine took the lead late and won.

Allen stuck his fott in his mouth early and turned what should have been an easy victory into a tight race, but still maintained a slight advantage as he pretty much led in all the polls. Now it appears we have another rreal brutal GOP ad that has backfired (Webb's novels) and Webb seems to have the momentium back on his side. This is still a real tight race and ever so desevring of the tossup category (much like TN & MO) the slightest wind could sway it one way or the other. However at this point have to say for the first time in this race, Webb has the edge (albeit a slight one).

Other channges. After numerous polls showing both Brown and Casey ahead by double digits, as well as the GOP pulling out national $$ their is no reason to keep either state in the lean column, both are now Strong Dem gains.

For awhile their was a bit of a disparity in the CT polls. Some showed Lieberman with a solid lead, while quite a few others showed it neck and neck. that disparity is nolonger there. Lieberman has leads outside the margin of error in most polls, double digits or close to double digits as well. No real reason to keep this race as a tossup.

No question, and no doubter its a pure tossup at this point, and its pretty much 50/50, but I decided to move TN to Ford Jr. Ford continues to have all the momentium in this race, and is probably running the best campaign of any Senate challenger. Corker's campaign has just completley stalled out and looks like a dead fish in the water. Unless Corker's cammpaign turns around quickly what looked like a 6-8 point Corker victory or so, now looks like Ford will win out narrowly. Again this s a complete & pure toss up, and it can go either way, but at this point I think Ford has a slight edge due to him running a MUCH MUCH better campaign than Corker.

Made a few changes

Didn't realize that I had MD as strong. I think that the Survey USA poll in MD was that 1 in 20 variety that blows up, Cardin is still ahead in everu other poll by a cmfortable margin. So unless others show a similar result, it doesn't change much. However, I should have had this race listed as lean earlier.

Oh changed from tossup to lean. Something i as going to do earlier, just held off on updating the map. Brown is ahead in 9 consecutive polls, the latest one by 10. That I think is a bit of a stretch, but the average of his last 5 has him up by more than 5, more than half of the polls have him up outside the MOE. things in Ohio are just horrid for the GOP

MI move from lean to strong. Stabenow is comfortably ahead in virtually every poll. Not only is just about everything outside the MOE most are in double digits.

MN lean to strong. Again virtually all polls have this race outside the MOE. kennedy is running a bad campaign. Kolbuchar is up and up outside the MOE in 8 consecutive polls, 4 of the last 5 polls up by double digits including the last 2 well into the double digits.

WA Really wanted to wait for for a little more info before I moved it to strong, but decided to do it now. Cantwell has really turned it up a few notches and has leads well into the double digits in the last few polls

RI Despite the strong showing in the Primary, Whitehouse has the advantage at this point. he is up in a bunch of polls in a row & several of them outside the MOE. The weakest of my leans, but this has moved out of the toss up category.

I was thinking about moving VA back into the lean GOp category, as I thinK Allen has a better chance of winning that race then my picks in my other toss up races, but Webb clearly performed better in the debates, so that keeps it as tossup for now.

New Survey USA poll has Ford up by 3. Not changing the race over just one poll as I still have Corker ahead, but this is now the 2nd consecutive poll showing this race very close, and Ford is running a brilliant campaign. Still think Corker will win, but this is very close

changes

MT Strong Dem to lean Dem. Still think tester will take this by a solid margin. Burns's has just shoved his entire foot in his mouth too many times. Despite that its not a strong gain, but a pretty good chance at one.

NJ moved to a tuossup. Receent events have made this a bit closer than i originally thought. With that being said the state is just too Democratic, and hates Bush & the National GOP too much in order for Kean to capitialize it on any more than making it closer.

VA- 3rd poll in a row showing this race a close one. i wanted to move it in my last update, but held off. We are now more than 3 weeks and almost a month removed from the "Maccaca" incident, it is becoming apparnt that the incident and the way it was handeled did more than minimal damage to Allen. The damage doesn't appear to be going away. Allen has the advantage at this time, but he is no longer in the clear.

Made a few changes.

PA is back to lean Dem from Strong Dem. Casey is still the favorite no question, and I highly doubt Santorum is going to win, but the race looks like it has gotten a bit closer. caseywins, but the amrgin of his victory moves this from strong to lean.

MO. Switched back to tossup. Still feel McCaskill will win the race, and it will be tough for Talent to hold on. So it can still be considered lean in that case, but I think the race will be close, so I am rating it as a tossup.

Montana stays strong pick up for the Dems. the last poll showed it pretty close, but Burns just has awful approval numbers, that I just don't see him coming back from.

CT Changes from dem to Ind. Still easily my least confdent pick. This will be a very close race, and still is a tossup, but Lieberman has the slight edge at ths point. I do believe many Dem Primary voters who voted for Lieberman will vote for Lamont, and Lamont wil do well with Independent voters, but at this point I think lieberman willl hold off by a very small margin.

With the recent polls I considered moving OH to lean Dem, but will wait to see if another poll or two to show Brown ahead by a sloid margin before I do that. Brown has been ahead in the last 3 polls, two of them by 8 points.

For awhile it looked like thier was going to be no GOP challenger. Kept forgetting to adjust myv % total for HI now that their is. Still will be a blowout no matter if its Akaka or Case, but > 60% (more han likley in the 64-68% range

Clarification on Sanders. Sanders will be running as a Dem in the Primary , and more than likely than decline the Dem endorsement and still run as an Indpendent without any Democratic opponent. So Sanders will be running as Independent and not as a Democrat as I thought he was going to run last night. So unless this changes VT is back to Ind

Sanders is running as a Dem, moves VT into the Dem column

Think it will be a very tight race, but Lamont will hold off and defeat Lieberman. With a very weak GOP candidate Lieberman will pick up a good portion of the GOP vote, however Lieberman could have some $$ issues and with Democrats stating they will support the Primary Winner its going to hurt Lieberman with even thosse who voed for him in a Primary. Its a tough battle & very very close, but fundraising could doom Lieberman. Still my least confident pick though.

I now think that even if Chafee survives the Primary Rhode Island will go to the Dems, though it will be real close. I believe Lamont will win the CT Primary, but will hold off making any changes until the Primary is finished and to see if Lieberman does indeed decide to run as an Independent.

Just adjusted the % in Nebraska & WV

Tossup <4%
Lean 4-8%
Strong => 8%

• View Smash255 Gubernatorial Predictions
• View Most Recent Entries
• View Entries with Most Recent Member Comments
• Go to Senatorial Prediction Home
• Update My 2006 Senatorial Prediction Map