Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-05 Version:17

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	10
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	3
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	0	+5	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+4
Rep	0	0	0	-5	0	-5	9	1	10	-5
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	27	48
Republican	10	40	50
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
56	32	24

Comments

This is likely my final prediction.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 8

Never mind. Sanders is only running in the Democrat primary to prevent any Democrats from getting on the ballot.

Version: 4

A few minor changes with the percentages on the prediction map.

Montana goes to lean, as do Maryland and New Jersey.

Connecticut also goes to lean, as Lamont seems to be a serious opponent.

Version: 3

The races in Maryland and Minnesota are closer than I thought.

Version History

Member Comments

By: Angry_Weasel (D-VA) - 2006-11-05 @ 16:02:11

Man, the Montana jokes would just coming flowing in like the blood elevator in the Shining.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	33/35	25/35	58/70	82.9%	1	7	97	T	305
2022 Governor	33/36	21/36	54/72	75.0%	1	7	194	T	272
2020 President	54/56	42/56	96/112	85.7%	2	7	130	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	19/35	50/70	71.4%	2	5	274	T	423
2018 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	5	1	67	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	25/36	58/72	80.6%	5	3	56	T	372
2016 President	48/56	30/56	78/112	69.6%	3	1	325	T	678
2012 President	55/56	46/56	101/112	90.2%	4	0	77	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	23/33	54/66	81.8%	4	3	40	T	343
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	2	41	37	T	106
2010 Senate	35/37	27/37	62/74	83.8%	14	0	21	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	29/37	64/74	86.5%	14	0	5	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	2	3	56	T	103
2008 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%	14	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	20/33	52/66	78.8%	7	3	81	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	3	3	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	25/52	9/52	34/104	32.7%	8	-	134	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	5/49	3/49	8/98	8.2%	5	-	217	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	2	168	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	24/33	56/66	84.8%	17	2	31	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	20	3	10	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	621/731	448/731	1069/1462	73.1%

Links

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