MT and RI-These races appear to be moving to the right at the last minute but I'm not sure if its too little to late. They remain Dem pickups but both are leaners now. This could change in the next day or so though.

MO and VA-The opposite is happening here. These ones are leaning left. After two ties, McCaskill has squeaked out the lead in 5 polls since then. In VA Webb suddenly burst over 50% in two polls and then led in 2 and tied in 1 in the subsequent 4 polls. After being behind for the entire race, this sudden move up is a dramatic shift to the left in the final days of the campaign.

MD-One recent poll has this one as a tie and while it is a close race it has been for the entire campaign. And Cardin has held the lead for the entire campaign. It'll be close but judging by history I still think this is safe Dem territory.

NJ-No longer in play in any real sense as far as I'm concerned. NJ voters are accustomed to corruption and this left leaning state isn't going to vote on corruption over Iraq and Bush.

The winners are already decided elsewhere.

Here's my house prediction based heavily on the analysis at RCP and CQ Politics. All districts listed are either in the RCP's top 50 and/or rated as highly competive by CQP.

Guaranteed Democratic gains: AZ-8, CO-7, FL-16, IN-8, OH-18, PA-10, PA-7, TX-22 (Dems hold IA-3, VT-AL, GA-8).

Likely Dem Gains: IA-1, NC-11, NM-1, NY-24, (Dems hold IL-8 and GA-12)

Lean Dem/tossup: CT-4, CT-5, FL-13, FL-22, IN-2, IN-9, NH-2, NY-20, OH-15, PA-6, WI-8

Lean Rep/tossup: AZ-1, AZ-5, CA-11, CT-2, ID-1, IL-6, KY-3, NY-19, NY-26, NY-29, OH-1, OH-2, PA-8, WA-8

Likely Rep. Holds: CA-4, CO-4, KY-4, MN-1, MN-6, NV-2, NV-3, NY-25, WY-AL

Garanteed Rep. Holds: CA-50, NE-1, NE-3, NJ-7, VA-2, PA-4

Final result: D-226 R-209

MT-this one is tightening at the last second so its only leans now.

MO-McCaskill seems to be riding a small wave so I'm being bold with a lean Dem here.

NJ & MD- These are both close but they have been for a while with little change so I'm not as convinced that these are actually going to be takeovers.

VA-Webb appears to finally be moving up but the polls here have been back and forth for a week. I think the winner gets decided by a few hundred votes. Its gonna be the closest of them all.

Here's my house prediction based heavily on analysis on RCP and CQ Politics. All districts listed are either in the RCP's top 50 and/or rated as highly competive by CQP.

Guaranteed Democratic gains: AZ-8, CO-7, FL-16, IN-8, OH-18, PA-10, PA-7, TX-22 (Dems hold IA-3, VT-AL, GA-8).

Likely Dem Gains: IA-1, NC-11, NM-1, NY-24, (Dems hold IL-8 and GA-12)

Lean Dem/tossup: CT-4, CT-5, FL-13, FL-22, IN-2, IN-9, NH-2, NY-20, OH-15, PA-6, WI-8

Lean Rep/tossup: AZ-1, AZ-5, CA-11, CT-2, ID-1, IL-6, KY-3, NY-26, OH-1, OH-2, PA-8, WA-8,

Likely Rep. Holds: CA-4, CO-4, KY-4, MN-1, MN-6, NV-2, NV-3, NY-29, NY-19, WY-AL

Garanteed Rep. Holds: CA-50, NE-1, NE-3, NJ-7, NY-25, VA-2, PA-4

Final result: D-226 R-209

TN-I think Ford is done. He might have had a shot but he took the offense over the top.

VA-Similar situation here. Allen went to far and its backfiring. Webb's been gaining momentum over the past two weeks. Still anyone's game though.

Here's my house prediction based heavily on analysis on RCP and CQ Politics. All districts listed are either in the RCP's top 50 and/or rated as highly competive by CQP.

Guaranteed Democratic gains: AZ-8, T-22, FL-16, IN-8, PA-10, PA-7, CO-7, & OH-18 (Dems hold IA-3, VT-AL, GA-8).

Likely Dem Gains: NY-26, NY-24, IA-1, NC-11, NM-1 (Dems hold IL-8 and GA-12)

Lean Dem/tossup: OH-15, PA-6, IN-9, CT-4, WA-8, NH-2

Lean Rep/tossup: AZ-1, AZ-5, IN-2, IL-6, MN-6, WY-AL, CT-2, CT-5, OH-1, OH-2, FL-13, FL-22, WI-8, NY-20, PA-8, KY-3

Likely Rep. Holds: ID-1, CO-4, KY-4, CA-11, NY-29, NY-19, PA-4, NV-2, NV-3, MN-1, CA-4

Garanteed Rep. Holds: NY-25, VA-2, CA-50, NJ-7, NE-1, NE-3

Final result: D-222 R-213

Wow, I am absolutely shocked by the newest polls (today is 10/30) coming out of Virginia. I thought the LA Times poll from last week was just a fluke in a long line of polls with Allen ahead but apparently I was wrong. I still think Allen will win but if Webb keeps up the current numbers I may have to flip this race. I find these polls especially jarring becuase both show Webb at or above 50%. That's something Allen hasn't been able to do in two consecutive polls since June. Also this is the first time Webb has been above 48%. Maybe people actually thought Webb's book was good (LOL).

Tennessee moves to tossup due to the racism charges swirling around the infamous "call me" ad. This will likely mobilize AA voters and may also bring around a bout of "White Guilt." Personally I find the whole thing repulsive, both the ad and the charges of racism.

With some percentage adjustments in safe races all else remains unchanged for me.

I fiddled with some percentages in a couple of races. Changed Tennessee to leans Republican and Virginia to Safe Republican. With only two weeks left I don't think Webb can pull it off. Allen has only been behind in one poll and he's within the margin of error. I think his 2008 chances are shot to shit but he'll remain a Senator. In TN this whole Playboy thing is not going over well for Ford in a socially conservative state even if it does affirm his love for football and girls. Plus, Corker has done some reorganizing that has given his campaign some new breath. In Missouri, things remain unchanged.

Many TV stations in Ohio are refusing to air the most recent add for DeWine sponsored by the Republican Party. The add claims Brown didn't pay some taxes in 1992. The truth is he was late by about two years. Seeing as this ad isn't being shown anywhere though i doubt it will have any affect and all that money is wasted. Kean's corruption campaign agaisnt Menendez seems to have run its course in NJ as Menendez has led in the polls for the last few weeks. Tennessee and Missouri remain tossups although a recent Blunder by Ford may cause him to lose momentum. Virginia is emerging as a much closer race after recent polls but Allen continues to lead in all of them which indicates that the margin of error is in his favor. Until I see a poll with Webb in the lead this race will remain strong or lean Republican. Maryland is becoming a tighter race but there is still a Democratic edge. Everything else seems pretty much decided already but we stil have two weeks left so who knows what will happen.

According to the NY Times the GOP has recently decided to cut its losses everywhere but Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia. They also are still holding out hope for New Jersey. In response to this I have moved Ohio and Rhode Island to strongly Democratic and Virginia to strongly Republican. It is clear from the polls that DeWine and Chafee were already struggling and without the support of the national party they will continue to flounder. With Allen already ahead in all polls I've seen this narrower focus should help him hold onto his lead. For now New Jersey, Tennessee, and Missouri will remain the same on my map but they may move to the Republican column in the coming days if this refocus has the desired affect for the GOP. Since Maryland was not mentioned in any of this I have moved it into the strongly Democratic category as well. Without the full attention of the GOP it will be hard for them to overtake a state that is so strongly Democratic, especially in this climate.

LAmont lost his steam after the primary and has been losing ground since so Connecticut is basically in the bag for Lieberman. Menendez seems to be on the rebound in New Jersey but its not a strong lead yet. Other than that I only changed a few percentages that needed updating.

New Jersey is currently going Democratic so I switched back to Democrats holding onto it. However, this race keeps flip flopping so I am leaving it in the Toss up category.

My confidence in Missouri is very very low at this time. It is a complete tossup either way. If the winds in Tennessee and New Jersey continue blowing in the same directions they are now I'll switch them to leans democrat and republican respectively.

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-12-05 @ 06:06:50

Well my house predicting skills aren't quite as good as I thought I guess. My final tally was off by at least three (pending legal action in FL-13 and a runoff in TX-23) but I'm actually pretty proud of that prediction. Its within 5 seats of the final result which is damn close in my opinion. However, I miss-called at least 12 races (FL-13 not included) and didn't even mention at least 3 that ended up switching: IA-2, KS-2, and NH-1 (I didn't mention TX-23 either if it ends up switching). Here's a breakdown of all my missed calls: AZ-5: Kinda surprising to me. Although the West is trending Dem Arizona is moving slower than NV, NM, and CO so I thought Giffords would be the only Dem takeover. I think my lean Rep prediction was good though. CA-11: I underestimated the environmentalist nature of the 11th's voters here. Shoulda had this one in the lean Dem column. CT 2 and CT-4: Got these two switched. I was figuring on CT-2 being the more conservative district. Shoulda gone with a Dem sweep of New England given the strong anti-war sentiment there. FL-13: The voting irregularities here lead me to beleive Jennings actually won this race and my call was correct so I'm not counting this one as a real miss-call. It looks like FL is going to crown the wrong victor yet again though. This only increases my loathing of the whole stupid state. IA-2: This is one I missed entirely in my ratings. I think I was distracted by the other two close races here and meejer's insistance that the Reps would be winning big in Iowa. KS-2: Another unmentioned takeover. I shoulda added it when I heard about the Dem's last minute blitz here. KY-3: I said it was only a leaner/tossup so I'm not really disappointed in losing this one. MN-1: Kinda surprising. The other talked about races in MN were moving to the right so I assumed it was statewide. I'm unhappy about my prediction here. NH-1: Going back to my CT comments, I should have gone for the Dem sweep in the Northeast. I at least should have mentioned this district somewhere between likely Rep and Lean Dem. NM-1: This was a nailbiter and extremely hard to call so no fault here. NY-19: This one was close so I'm not as disappointed in my bad prediction but it was another example of anti-war underestimation in New England. OH-15: I can say that this one was close so I'm excused for being wrong but that would be sorta a lie. I let my own preference block out Pryce's popularity and moderate record. I also overestimated Kilroy's vote potential in the urban/suburban areas and underestimated the number of total voters in general in the rural portions of the district. In my defence, Brown and Strickland trounced DeWine and Blackwell. However, OH-15 contains one of only 16 counties (out of a total 88 in Ohio) that voted for Balckwell. Also, both "rural" counties in the 15th voted for DeWine. Basically I totally screwed up on my own district which I kinda knew I was doing. PA-4: I was caught of gaurd by this one. I'm not sure what happened here. PA-6 and PA-8: I should have just gone with all Dem takeover's in the Philly area and been right 2 times instead of just once. Well that about sums it up. One last comment about OH-15, even though I voted for Kilroy (which I basically admitted above) at this point I'm glad Pryce won. She has publicly admitted that in her leadership post led her away from the views of the district and now that she has given up that post she will be able to spend more time here and better represent us. Also, she is one of the few remaining GOP moderates and the party will need people like her if they hope to win back their mahjority in the House.

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