Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:16

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	0	+6	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+5
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-6	8	1	9	-6
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	22	27	49
Republican	9	40	49
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
58	33	25

Comments

Arizona

John Kyl (R) 52%
Jim Pederson (D) 45%

California

Diane Feinstein (D) 60%
Dick Mountjoy (R) 37%

Connecticut (Independent Pickup)

Joe Lieberman (CFL) 50%
Ned Lamont (D) 40%
Alan Schlesinger (R) 9%

Delaware

Tom Carper (D) 65%
Jan Ting (R) 31%

Florida

Bill Nelson (D) 61%
Katherine Harris (R) 36%

Hawaii

Daniel Akaka (D) 65%
Jerry Coffee (R) 34%

Indiana

Richard Lugar (R) 88%
Other 12%

Maine

Olympia Snowe (R) 72%
Hay Bright (D) 24%

Maryland

Ben Cardin (D) 52%
Michael Steele (R) 47%

Massachusetts

Ted Kennedy (D) 67%
Ken Chase (R) 33%

Michigan

Debbie Stabenow (D) 55%
Mike Bouchard (R) 42%

Minnesota

Amy Klobuchar (DFL) 56%
Mark Kennedy (R) 41%

Mississippi

Trent Lott (R) 66%
Erik Fleming (D) 33%

Missouri (Democratic Pickup)

Claire McCaskill (D) 51%
Jim Talent (R) 48%

Montana (Democratic Pickup)

Jon Tester (D) 51%
Conrad Burns (R) 48%

Nebraska

Ben Nelson (D) 58%
Pete Ricketts (R) 41%

Nevada

John Ensign (R) 55%
Jack Carter (D) 44%

New Jersey

Robert Menendez (D) 53%
Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 45%

New Mexico

Jeff Bingaman (D) 67%
Allen McCulloch (R) 33%

New York

Hillary Clinton (D) 66%
John Spencer (R) 32%

North Dakota

Kent Conrad (D) 62%
Dwight Grotberg (R) 37%

Ohio (Democratic Pickup)

Sherrod Brown (D) 54%
Mike DeWine (R) 45%

Pennsylvania (Democratic Pickup)

Robert Casey, Jr. (D) 56%
Rick Santorum (R) 44%

Rhode Island (Democratic Pickup)

Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 51%
Lincoln Chafee (R) 48%

Tennessee

Bob Corker (R) 53%
Harold Ford, Jr. (D) 46%

Texas

Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R) 65%
Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D) 34%

Utah

Orrin Hatch (R) 66%
Pete Ashdown (D) 32%

Vermont

Bernie Sanders (I) 62%
Richard Tarrant (R) 35%

Virginia (Democratic Pickup)

James Webb (D) 50%
George Allen (R) 49%

Washington

Maria Cantwell (D) 55%
Mike McGavick (R) 43%

West Virginia

Robert Byrd (D) 64%
John Raese (R) 35%

Wisconsin

Herb Kohl (D) 70%
Robert Lorge (R) 29%

Wyoming

Craig Thomas (R) 69%
Dale Groutage (D) 29%

NEW PROJECTED SENATE ALLIGNMENT: 49 Democratic 49 Republican 2 Independent

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	3	1	205	T	305
2022 Governor	31/36	25/36	56/72	77.8%	2	1	158	T	272
2020 President	53/56	35/56	88/112	78.6%	7	7	480	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	18/35	48/70	68.6%	6	4	337	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	3	36	51	T	293
2018 Senate	32/35	24/35	56/70	80.0%	7	1	42	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	27/36	60/72	83.3%	6	3	18	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	11	40	T	149
2016 President	47/56	28/56	75/112	67.0%	19	1	440	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	17/34	47/68	69.1%	10	23	213	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	6/12	14/24	58.3%	2	33	67	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	23/36	58/72	80.6%	1	3	60	T	382
2012 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%	5	47	182	T	760
2012 Rep Primary	23/52	11/52	34/104	32.7%	16	-	137	T	231
2010 Senate	31/37	16/37	47/74	63.5%	2	99	280	T	456
2008 President	52/56	46/56	98/112	87.5%	22	1	41	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	13	1	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	5	1	86	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	92	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	25/33	58/66	87.9%	16	1	10	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	31/36	65/72	90.3%	13	1	1	T	312
2004 President	56/56	41/56	97/112	86.6%	52	1	24	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	672/757	480/757	1152/1514	76.1%

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