Arizona

John Kyl (R) 52%
Jim Pederson (D) 45%

California

Diane Feinstein (D) 60%
Dick Mountjoy (R) 37%

Connecticut (Independent Pickup)

Joe Lieberman (CFL) 50%
Ned Lamont (D) 40%
Alan Schlesinger (R) 9%

Delaware

Tom Carper (D) 65%
Jan Ting (R) 31%

Florida

Bill Nelson (D) 61%
Katherine Harris (R) 36%

Hawaii

Daniel Akaka (D) 65%
Jerry Coffee (R) 34%

Indiana

Richard Lugar (R) 88%
Other 12%

Maine

Olympia Snowe (R) 72%
Hay Bright (D) 24%

Maryland

Ben Cardin (D) 52%
Michael Steele (R) 47%

Massachusetts

Ted Kennedy (D) 67%
Ken Chase (R) 33%

Michigan

Debbie Stabenow (D) 55%
Mike Bouchard (R) 42%

Minnesota

Amy Klobuchar (DFL) 56%
Mark Kennedy (R) 41%

Mississippi

Trent Lott (R) 66%
Erik Fleming (D) 33%

Missouri (Democratic Pickup)

Claire McCaskill (D) 51%
Jim Talent (R) 48%

Montana (Democratic Pickup)

Jon Tester (D) 51%
Conrad Burns (R) 48%

Nebraska

Ben Nelson (D) 58%
Pete Ricketts (R) 41%

Nevada

John Ensign (R) 55%
Jack Carter (D) 44%

New Jersey

Robert Menendez (D) 53%
Tom Kean, Jr. (R) 45%

New Mexico

Jeff Bingaman (D) 67%
Allen McCulloch (R) 33%

New York

Hillary Clinton (D) 66%
John Spencer (R) 32%

North Dakota

Kent Conrad (D) 62%
Dwight Grotberg (R) 37%

Ohio (Democratic Pickup)

Sherrod Brown (D) 54%
Mike DeWine (R) 45%

Pennsylvania (Democratic Pickup)

Robert Casey, Jr. (D) 56%
Rick Santorum (R) 44%

Rhode Island (Democratic Pickup)

Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 51%
Lincoln Chafee (R) 48%

Tennessee

Bob Corker (R) 53%
Harold Ford, Jr. (D) 46%

Texas

Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R) 65%
Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D) 34%

Utah

Orrin Hatch (R) 66%
Pete Ashdown (D) 32%

Vermont

Bernie Sanders (I) 62%
Richard Tarrant (R) 35%

Virginia (Democratic Pickup)

James Webb (D) 50%
George Allen (R) 49%

Washington

Maria Cantwell (D) 55%
Mike McGavick (R) 43%

West Virginia

Robert Byrd (D) 64%
John Raese (R) 35%

Wisconsin

Herb Kohl (D) 70%
Robert Lorge (R) 29%

Wyoming

Craig Thomas (R) 69%
Dale Groutage (D) 29%

NEW PROJECTED SENATE ALLIGNMENT: 49 Democratic 49 Republican 2 Independent

I didn't just predict that we take back the senate. Dammit.

Gave Missouri to McCaskill, although that race remains pure toss-up.

Flipped N.J. to Kean.

Didn't change any actual outcomes from last version, I just moved RI and NJ from Lean D --> Tossup D, moved Virginia and Tennessee from Solid R ---> Lean R, PA from Solid D ---> Lean D, and Connecticut from Lean I ---> Tossup I.

Arizona: Pederson's drawing slightly closer but he has no chance. The best he can do is lose by 10%.

California: No contest, Feinstein rolls

Connecticut: I think Lamont's going to win the primary. And if that happens, Lieberman (I) has to be the favorite to win the general. But I'll keep the race with the Democrats as I think the sum total of the chances of Lieberman (D) and Lamont (D) winning the general election are greater than the singular chance of Lieberman (I) winning the general. And Lieberman (I) has announced that he will be Senator Lieberman (D) come January even if he wins the general election as Lieberman (I).

Delaware: Carper rolls

Florida: Harris long ago committed suicide.

Hawaii: Akaka appears to be the favorite to win the primary and either he or Case would roll in the general election.

Indiana: No problems for Lugar

Maine: No problems for Collins

Maryland: Steele is a headcase. He can only conceivably win if Mfume wins the primary, which he might. But Steele can't beat Cardin. I think either Mfume or Cardin would beat Steele at the end of the day.

Massachusetts: Go Ted Go!

Michigan: No reason to believe Stabenow won't win.

Minnesota: Will be relatively close, but Kennedy has yet to lead Klobuchar in a single poll.

Mississippi: Lott rolls

Missouri: Highly competitive. McCaskill certainly can win, but I'll keep it with the incumbent as I do with all tossups.

Montana: No polls in a long time, but Burns hasn't led one since April. Dem pickup.

Nebraska: Nelson rolls

Nevada: Ensign rolls

New Jersey: Probably the best Republican chance at a pickup. Alot of undecideds, but Menendez is relatively popular (+7 approval/disapproval per SUSA) and he's led 7 of the last 8 polls. Kean has also proven to be very stupid. I just don't see New Jersey going Republican in such a Democratic year.

New Mexico: Bingaman rolls

New York: Clinton rolls

North Dakota: Conrad rolls

Ohio: Brown may very well win on the coattails of Strickland's double-digit win against Blackwell for Governor and the anti-Bush sentiment in the state. Still it's a tossup and I'll keep it with DeWine until I have a great reason not to.

Pennsylvania: Casey hasn't really slowed up. Santorum looks finished. Dem pickup

Rhode Island: Chafee/Laffey in the primary is close, and if Laffey is nominated Whitehouse beats him by 20+ points. Whitehouse also looks to have a solid chance of defeating Chafee. In a straight-up Whitehouse/Chafee race I'd have to still go with Chafee to win, but playing percentages (Laffey winning primary + Chafee losing to Whitehouse = >50%) I'll give it to Whitehouse. Dem pickup

Tennessee: Ford can't overcome the built-in structural disadvantage he's combating. He'll lose to whichever white conservative the GOP nominates.

Texas: Hutchinson rolls

Utah: Go Orrin Go!

Vermont: Bern Bernie Bern

Virginia: Allen should handle Webb by about 10%

Washington: McGavick apparently has some staying power and it won't be a walkover but Cantwell obviously has a big edge.

West Virginia: Go Byrd Go!

Wisconsin: Kohl rolls

Wyoming: Thomas rolls

Connecticut and Rhode Island races depend entirely on the primary. Obviously the Republicans can't win in Connecticut, but it could go Independent or Democratic. Rhode Island is a dogfight with Chafee in the race and a walkover if he loses to Laffey in the primary. Chafee really should run as a Democrat. Hawaii also has an interesting primary with Ed Case being a little bitch but it'll go Democratic easily either way.

Changes from last time:

Minnesota from R --> D: Kennedy hasn't led in a poll yet. If this race is just going to be generic democrat v. generic republican, which it is starting to look like, it's going to be very hard for Kennedy to win.

Montana from R --> D: Burns is clearly trailing at this instant. He has time to catch up, but in reality, he has to be the underdog at this point.

Pennsylvania from R --> D: I decided to be sane for the hell of it.

I gave in to Casey in PA, at least for now.

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