PredictionsEndorse2006 Senatorial Predictions - WMS (D-NM) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:11

Prediction Map
WMS MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
WMS MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind2
 
Tos6
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+60+60-1-114216+5
Rep000-60-6819-6
Ind0+1+1000011+1


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic222749
Republican94049
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
543321
piepiepie

Comments

Based on Mason-Dixon...changed NJ as mentioned before. And flipped Missouri (Talent just can't break a lead) and Virginia (biggest f***in shock of the entire election season). Missouri and Virginia could still go either way of course. Talk about an implosion, and now that the implosion has sustained itself this long...


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 10

See comments from before to explain changes.


Version: 9

Based on comments from the Forum's Polling Expert ;-) it appears Chafee is out...at least Whitehouse is decent enough as a replacement, although he's not Langevin. :) Moved TN to tossup status (surprise, surprise)...Missouri and New Jersey could go either way as usual...


Version: 8

I don't like Sherrod Brown...but I can't deny he's ahead...


Version: 7

Switched Missouri back (that race fluctuates far too much for easy predictions), altered a few percentages and confidences here and there, and almost switched another two or three. This is also subject to further change...


Version: 6

Making the obvious change here...there is still a long way to go until the election, of course, so expect more versions. :)


Version: 5

Making some more adjustments...and I'll note that MO and RI could go either way at this point. MT has almost broken out of tossup status, but not yet. Holding firm on my other predictions for the moment.


Version: 4

Returning to a normal prediction now...


Version: 3

Having some fun with CT and RI ^_^ and making a few other changes...it would certainly make for an interesting Senate...


Version: 2

Changed Virginia confidence - geez, how did I miss that one? O_o


Version: 1

Analogy time! Republicans are to Florida as Democrats are to Ohio. ;-)


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 49/56 29/56 78/112 69.6% pie 1 221 646T684
P 2012 President 50/56 41/56 91/112 81.3% pie 1 7 466T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 14/33 43/66 65.2% pie 1 7 221T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 1 7 179T228
P 2008 President 52/56 25/56 77/112 68.8% pie 6 1 625T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 8 1 257T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 11 1 65T465
P 2006 Governor 36/36 22/36 58/72 80.6% pie 10 5 44T312
P 2004 President 53/56 23/56 76/112 67.9% pie 15 6 1441T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 342/370 193/370 535/740 72.3% pie


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