Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction States Won

		25 |	33 |	50 |
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 |	33 |	50 |
Dem	21
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	2
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+6	0	+6	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+5
Rep	0	0	0	-6	0	-6	8	1	9	-6
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats Democratic 22 27 49 Republican 9 40 49 Independent 2 0 2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
57	33	24

Comments
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Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 116

Final Prediction 51D-49D. Moved everything to lean.

Version: 110

D: PA, RI, and OH
LD: MT, MD, and NJ
TU: VA, TN, and MO

Version: 108

Final MAP: 50R-48D-2I

Version: 107

R: AZ
LD: MT and NJ
D: OH, PA, MD, and RI
I: CT
TU: MO, TN, and VA

Version: 99

LD: OH, RI,and MD
D: MT and PA
TU: NJ, MO, and TN
R: VA

Version: 90

D: PA, WA, MT, and RI
TU: OH, MO, TN, and NJ
RL: VA, AZ

Version: 77

LD TO: PA, MT, and RI it looks like Dems are in command in those races
TU: OH, MO, and TN due to the closeness of these races
LD:Wa and MD due to it being a 5-7 pt race.

Version: 76

Only tossup is NJ everything else are favored towards either party, rasmussen has it a 1 pt lead for Kean, so I think Menendez should win it.

Version: 66

MO=D looks like McCaskill is pulling ahead after being behind
NJ=R looks likewise like Kean is doing the same.

Version: 63

NJ>D due to the fact that Menendez is fighting back on the corruption scandle and has more money plus Zogby, but still waiting on QU poll.
OH, MT only TU's both candidates have a ton of money to stay in the race, Burns from Abramoff. And DeWine from his ties. McCaskill has a money disadvantage (Done updating map for now).

Version: 62

Two tups: MT and NJ that's it.
2-4 net gain for the Dems that's it.
Unfortunately the Dems have to defend NJ, Menendez was the clear favorite until recently. Moved MT, Tester is not the favorite anymore. He is back even with Burns.

Dem: MI, MN
LD: MD, PA, WA, OH, RI
TU: MT, NJ
RL: MO, TN, VA, AZ

Version: 57

Did a little backtracking, I think that until the M-D poll comes out on OH I cannot predict that Brown will win over DeWine. I think that the Dems will pick up RI, MT, and PA.

Version: 55

Narrowed my map to just VA outside the vulnerable 5 republicans as the prime target for Dems to recapture the senate.

Version: 48

CT>STR IND Zogby polls
MN>lean D
NJ>TU
MT>lean D
PA>strong D=9 pt lead

Version: 47

I am giving Chafee RI because of the Bush bounce. Let's see how long it lasts. For the others, I will leave it.

Version: 45

Although, Klobucher has lead by double figures, Zogby polls and the Survey USA poll has it within single digit. The state still remains the second target for the GOP in Nov. As far as having MT as lean over MN Tester has a seven point lead, and the real poll that I believe had Klobucher up by five by Survey USA. I think that was the real poll.

Version: 42

New Rasmussen poll has Talent ahead.

Version: 40

Changed MO to Republican, Talent's approval numbers went up. A 1 point is not good for a challenger, an incumbant can overcome that on election day. She needs to spread out her lead in order for me to keep it Democratic.

Election projection says most likely to change party: AZ, MO, OH, NJ, WA, MT, and PA. These are the states that mostly are in play.

Version: 36

PA<40% Green on ballot
MO>D Survey USA poll

Version: 34

A tossup is a state in which the leader is leading by 6 points or less. And I have defined my map in such way. There are exceptions do to current electoral trends of a state. RI Whitehouse has a 6 point lead, MO, Claire has a 3 point lead, but Zogby shows Talent a 4 point lead, OH Brown has a 8 point lead but Rasmussen show a 2 pt lead, and MT, Tester has is tied with Burns. As for NJ, Kean is a little ahead or Menendez is ahead. Ford is trailing by 15 pts in the Consumer logic poll so don't qualify as a tossup. MD, in the Zogby poll shows a 7 pt lead for Mfume or Steele.

I will change MO to Dem lean only if and when Zogby has Claire ahead. Only when all the pollster agree that a seat should be in Dem will I change it.

Version: 31

Lieberman is beating Lamont by 3 points. Since this come on the heals of his election victory, then this means that Lamont didn't get much of a bounce, and the people in CT like their incumbant senator no matter what party he may choose to run in. Put it in strong lean independent. Put Bernie Sanders back as independent because the story of him running as an independent wasn't true. Solid doesn't always mean safe like in the case of Ensign in Nevada, but it is also means favored, the CT race is Independent favored.

Version: 28

Ok, went back and talked it over with some people, and they said that this is the most likely scenario: OH, RI, PA, and MT. The others are 2nd tier battlegrounds. I changed it today because I was unsure about MO. But the way the state has trended in the past, I don't think it will trend Dem right now.

Version: 27

Did some evaluating, and I think this is the likely outcome. OH, PA, MT, and RI, the incumbants are much weaker in the states that are up for grabs than the senate seats up for grabs in the other states. The other states are much more conservative. The only state really that is too close to call right now is MO. And I give the advantage to Talent due to his incumbancy.

Version: 25

Updated my prediction map. TN lean republican. AZ and VA as solid republican. It seems as though the control of the Senate isn't at stake as previously thought. Also, changed it with the assistance of the hotline. The Hotline says the most likely outcome OH, PA, MT, and RI. Took away MO, eventhough Claire is ahead.

Version: 23

Decided to change TN until there is more scientific polling that confims Zogby. Zogby isn't a scientific pollster. But this race is going down to the wire and Ford has a decent shot like other white candidates do.

Version: 11

I think the ad being doctored is going to finish off DeWine.

Version: 10

Changed Pa to lean Dem because Casey will win by 10 not 18.

Version: 5

Put MD in tossup because Michael Steele endorsed Mfume and it maynot sway Dem it can help the undecides make up their mind about Cardin or Mfume. And if Mfume is the nominee it is more vulnerable due to Mfume's low name recognition and weakness among evangelicals.

Version: 4

M. DeWine 38% approval Toss up
J. Talent 48% approval Toss up
J. Kyl 45% approval Lean Republican

M. Dayton 40% approval Toss up
R. Menendez 40% approval Toss up

G. Allen 52% approval Likely Republican
J. Ensign 50% approval Solid Republican

Version: 3

M. DeWine 38% approval ratings TU top Tier
J. Talent 48% approval ratings TU 2nd Tier
J. Kyl 45% approval ratings L Republican

M Dayton 40% approval ratings TU top tier
R. Menendez 40% approval ratings TU top tier

Cook: OH, PA, RI, MT, MO, and TN tossups and AZ lean republican, VA likely republican, and NV solid republican.

Version: 2

Put back NJ as vulnerable due to Corzine having shut down the budget and insisted on a pay hike. But NJ is a traditionally a Dem state and Bush is unpopular in the state.

Version History

117: 2006-11-07 @ 11:43:46 116: 2006-11-06 @ 12:19:02 115: 2006-11-05 @ 22:20:11 114: 2006-11-04 @ 22:19:05 113: 2006-11-03 @ 21:19:30 112: 2006-11-02 @ 13:01:45 111: 2006-11-01 @ 13:57:51 110: 2006-10-31 @ 14:54:01 109: 2006-10-30 @ 23:10:24 108: 2006-10-29 @ 12:08:26 107: 2006-10-28 @ 21:17:25 106: 2006-10-27 @ 08:45:19 105: 2006-10-26 @ 23:20:30 104: 2006-10-25 @ 23:10:26 103: 2006-10-24 @ 22:35:29 102: 2006-10-23 @ 23:12:22 101: 2006-10-22 @ 21:39:25 100: 2006-10-21 @ 20:57:45 99: 2006-10-20 @ 19:10:52 98: 2006-10-19 @ 15:09:01 97: 2006-10-18 @ 19:55:21 96: 2006-10-17 @ 21:45:52 95: 2006-10-16 @ 23:59:34 94: 2006-10-15 @ 23:35:14 93: 2006-10-14 @ 21:38:54 92: 2006-10-13 @ 23:53:28 91: 2006-10-12 @ 22:13:45 90: 2006-10-10 @ 21:32:34 89: 2006-10-09 @ 20:09:54 88: 2006-10-08 @ 23:45:43 87: 2006-10-07 @ 22:39:54 86: 2006-10-06 @ 22:13:03 85: 2006-10-05 @ 23:50:35 84: 2006-10-03 @ 22:14:24 83: 2006-10-02 @ 23:57:10 82: 2006-10-01 @ 22:54:14 81: 2006-09-30 @ 20:35:06 80: 2006-09-29 @ 21:56:34 79: 2006-09-27 @ 23:16:24 78: 2006-09-26 @ 18:33:24 77: 2006-09-25 @ 21:51:48 76: 2006-09-24 @ 14:57:12 75: 2006-09-23 @ 23:59:31 74: 2006-09-22 @ 18:16:59 73: 2006-09-21 @ 16:19:59 72: 2006-09-20 @ 21:29:29 71: 2006-09-19 @ 23:29:15 70: 2006-09-18 @ 15:56:23 69: 2006-09-17 @ 21:55:59 68: 2006-09-16 @ 06:47:14 67: 2006-09-15 @ 22:45:57 66: 2006-09-14 @ 19:46:44 65: 2006-09-13 @ 23:40:17 64: 2006-09-12 @ 22:38:16 63: 2006-09-11 @ 19:27:32 62: 2006-09-10 @ 12:53:42 61: 2006-09-09 @ 18:54:36 60: 2006-09-08 @ 23:43:04 59: 2006-09-07 @ 21:20:21 58: 2006-09-06 @ 22:36:52 57: 2006-09-05 @ 19:39:45 56: 2006-09-04 @ 20:30:42 55: 2006-09-03 @ 20:30:24 54: 2006-09-02 @ 18:32:52 53: 2006-09-01 @ 22:50:38 52: 2006-08-31 @ 23:58:48 51: 2006-08-30 @ 18:09:25 50: 2006-08-29 @ 21:39:51 49: 2006-08-28 @ 23:21:55 48: 2006-08-27 @ 21:34:29 47: 2006-08-26 @ 00:32:08 46: 2006-08-25 @ 07:44:36 45: 2006-08-24 @ 21:55:14 44: 2006-08-23 @ 21:33:01 43: 2006-08-22 @ 23:59:50 42: 2006-08-21 @ 22:42:47 41: 2006-08-20 @ 19:34:25 40: 2006-08-19 @ 13:37:32 39: 2006-08-18 @ 17:10:51 38: 2006-08-17 @ 21:40:43 37: 2006-08-16 @ 21:13:58 36: 2006-08-15 @ 16:16:39 35: 2006-08-14 @ 22:16:24 34: 2006-08-13 @ 15:56:30 33: 2006-08-12 @ 19:59:06 32: 2006-08-11 @ 17:24:41 31: 2006-08-10 @ 20:50:41 30: 2006-08-09 @ 21:39:00 29: 2006-08-08 @ 23:44:33 28: 2006-08-07 @ 22:48:27 27: 2006-08-06 @ 18:05:33 26: 2006-08-05 @ 21:05:55 25: 2006-08-04 @ 22:38:26 24: 2006-08-03 @ 20:23:37 23: 2006-08-02 @ 23:52:01 22: 2006-08-01 @ 20:11:01 21: 2006-07-31 @ 15:50:22 20: 2006-07-30 @ 13:27:56 19: 2006-07-28 @ 18:59:32 18: 2006-07-27 @ 14:33:39 17: 2006-07-26 @ 19:49:09 16: 2006-07-25 @ 17:19:14 15: 2006-07-24 @ 20:12:39 14: 2006-07-23 @ 23:45:39 13: 2006-07-22 @ 21:35:09 12: 2006-07-21 @ 20:45:30 11: 2006-07-20 @ 21:00:50 10: 2006-07-16 @ 22:14:31 9: 2006-07-15 @ 22:31:16 8: 2006-07-14 @ 21:44:41 7: 2006-07-11 @ 10:51:15 6: 2006-07-10 @ 22:02:54 5: 2006-07-09 @ 21:08:24 4: 2006-07-08 @ 17:03:17 3: 2006-07-07 @ 18:51:00 2: 2006-07-06 @ 16:40:58 1: 2006-07-05 @ 20:32:49 View Version

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