Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-07-08 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	18
Ind	1
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	12
Rep	17
Ind	1
Tos	3
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	0	+2	-3	-2	-5	12	0	12	-3
Rep	+3	+2	+5	-2	0	-2	12	1	13	+3
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	14	27	41
Republican	18	40	58
Independent	1	0	1

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
33	23	10

Comments
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Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-07-24 @ 01:24:26

NJ, MD, MI I see a lot of you republicans think you will win NJ and MD what make you think that? MI is also out of your reach.

By: downwithdaleft (R-NJ) - 2006-07-24 @ 12:05:06

I'll explain NJ for you:

1.) Name Recognition
Tom Kean Jr.'s father, whose name is also Tom Kean, as a hero in NJ. He was a long-serving governor and recently the chair of the 9-11 commission. You say Tom Kean and people in NJ go crazy, they love him, even Dems. From living in NJ I know about 2-5% of people in the state will vote for him thinking it is his father, and at least another 20 b/c they loved his father.

2.) Corzine, Corzine, Corzine
Since taking office in Jan, Corzine has done nothing right. He's appointed close friends to important government posts (sounds like McGreevey) and raised the sales tax a point. He's shut down the state government, closing Atlantic City for the first time since it opened.

3.) Corruption
Menedez is seen as a Hudson county political boss. Hudson is probably, other than Essex which includes Newark, the most liberal county. It includes Jersey City, Hoboken, and other areas next to New York City. It borders my country, Bergen, to the south. While Menedez is well-liked in Hudson, he is hated in Bergen. People are fed up with the current government and want to return to someone like Tom Kean, so who better than his son?

I hope that answers your question.

By: cm04g (I-FL) - 2006-07-25 @ 03:06:51

You did answer the question but I think given the current climate and the tilt of New Jersey to the left will take Menendez over the top.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2018 Senate	31/35	15/35	46/70	65.7%	2	19	362	T	483
2016 President	50/56	33/56	83/112	74.1%	2	52	114	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	17/34	49/68	72.1%	1	64	120	T	362
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	221	8	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	10/36	45/72	62.5%	2	21	282	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	16/36	46/72	63.9%	1	21	123	T	300
2012 President	50/56	37/56	87/112	77.7%	1	350	561	T	760
2010 Senate	32/37	6/37	38/74	51.4%	4	2	408	T	456
2010 Governor	23/37	8/37	31/74	41.9%	1	47	290	T	312
2006 U.S. Senate	23/33	10/33	33/66	50.0%	2	122	445	T	465
2006 Governor	22/36	12/36	34/72	47.2%	1	122	297	T	312
2004 President	48/56	31/56	79/112	70.5%	1	10	1285	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	378/455	197/455	575/910	63.2%

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