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Date of Prediction: 2006-10-29 Version:11

Prediction Map
mgrossbe Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
mgrossbe Map


Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind2
 
Tos0
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+50+50-1-114216+4
Rep000-50-59110-5
Ind0+1+1000011+1


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic212748
Republican104050
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
583226
piepiepie

Comments

This is my final map barring some major breaking news/scandal. Which is always a possiblity.

Breakdown of the ten seats that i consider competive. PA not included

Arizona - will be taken by Kyl, he is not going to win by much allowing Napoltino to confidently appoint pederson if McCain wins the presidency.

Maryland - this will be very close, the dem nature and a stong record for the state will pull cardin through.

Michagan - In the end Stabanow pulls out a squeeker. Her incumbancy and record will pervail over the situation in the state.

Missoura - McCaskills wins not because Talent has commited a firable offense. However the climate, the dems GOTV in the state, and finally the brillant Fox ad combined with her support for a popular adm. will win the day.

Montana - Tester pulls this out in another down to the wire race. His economic populism coupled with his downhome montanian attitude will prevail over an out of touch well to put it bluntly a--. Burns just loves the taste of loafers.

New Jersey - in a battle of the worst canidates, by comprasion, Menedez will win due to his experience, the nature of the state, and the inability of kean to do anything outside of yell corruption.

Ohio - Brown(my favorite canidate)will win because of the ressonance of his populist message, this sould be used by more dems in the rust belt it really works, and the climate of ohio is just horrible for the gop.

Rhode Island - if it was not for control of the senate Chafee would be reelected. The two so close on issues it isane. i watched the debates it seemed more like a primary than a general. If chaffee wins and the senate is tied their will be a real battle over chaffee.

Tennesse - though ford is my second favorite canidate slightly ahead of tester. His race and that horrible, obviously racially undertoned, ad will just be enough to pull him down. I am waiting to see how much worse he does than the polls show. I guess 5 points.

Virginia - Taking the cake for my least favorite elected senator Georgey boy wins due to his past work and his horrible missuse of webbs writing. Go into battle Georgey then you might understand whats really going on. Hell watch any realistic vietnam movie.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

 By: mgrossbe (D-IN) - 2006-10-29 @ 11:07:44

meejer,

Fair is fair so here is my breakdown and why. Feel free to make comments(anyone really)as you see fit but be a little analytical no tester is a lib crap.
prediction Map

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-10-29 @ 12:58:07

OK

AZ, its not even really in contention. I agree

MD, you already know I don't agree with "its a blue state" scenario. Which by the way isn't any different than pointing out that Tester is to Liberal for MT. Same basic reasoning. I don't buy it in MD, you don't buy it MT

MI, race was over long ago. I agree

MO, Its possible, I don't see the coin falling that way though. And by the way your "brilliant" ad isn't entirely honest. Do you support half truths in advertising? Talent is only against FEDERAL FUNDING of EMBRYONIC stem cell research.

"Economic populism"...is that what you all are calling liberal fiscal policy and income redistribution now? I thought you renamed it "progressive" State is not far enough left to support Tester. Burns in a squeaker.

NJ, Possible. race could go either way.

OH, Likely...I may change my map for the last time to reflect it. Just not ready yet.

RI, possible...same as OH

TN, calling something "racist" does not make it so. Is this how dems play the race card now? Make an allegation with no basis in fact by stretching to the logical limits any objective view? The ad is tacky, but humerous, there's nothing "racist" about it.
Corker in not a squeaker.

VA, Yeah your lying, sexist, racist candidate is so much better than ours. Webb if anything is more deeply flawed than Allen. Allen, easily
prediction Map

 By: mgrossbe (D-IN) - 2006-10-29 @ 16:56:20

I tried to throw you a bone but you just cant help yourself. Quickly, the reason for maryland was not only the state but the fact that cardin has produced for his state and is very well liked. As far as the fox ad we will never agree on the issue so why bother. I think we only disagreed on missouri and montana so not to be. Economic populism is a good thing IMO if you do not agree so be it. It will win the day not only in the senate but in the house. As far as the ad in Tennesse i hate agruing about this because there are two types of people that disagree with my opinion hack and people who are ignorant. The latter is actually a good thing that the civil rights movement has done so well that people do not see race as much as they use to. The former IMO is a fool it obvisouly play on the fears of insecure white males who in the back of their minds(sorry about the lang.) "don't let your duaghters out those uppity n---- are gonna steal them from us. You of all people should no that bais. I by no means say you hold it of many things i admire about you is that you careless about race but you more than anyone else knows about how bad interracial relationship mess with insecure white men or black women to be honest with you. I do not know about your husband but my friends who are AA are outraged at this ad and i can see it too. Outside of that devisive POS we see basically the same thing though i think your opitism in MD is similar to optimism over a steal of AZ. Have a good one girl. prediction Map

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-10-29 @ 20:22:20

If you want to talk to a girl you can talk to my wife. I don't need anti-Racist diatribes from you on what you "think" racism is, I have first hand knowledge *******. Nobodies insecure in my house. We're all well adjusted Republicans. What the hell do I care about thin skinned peoples feelings. Its my wife who's AA, I'm Italian...thankyou.prediction Map

 By: db099221 (D-PA) - 2006-10-29 @ 23:33:32

I'm very partisan, I admit that. But I don't call everyone who strays on a vote a DINO. I'm not some hack who can't view things objectively, despite my perhaps extreme point of view. I hope that now everyone can see meejer for who he really is.prediction Map

 By: CollectiveInterest (I-IL) - 2006-10-29 @ 23:36:40

meejer, what's the point of the girl saying, "call me" in the anti-Ford ad?prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-10-30 @ 00:37:16

I've seen the ad and I fail to see the racism in it. Its a nasty attack ad, thats for sure. But the simple fact is that most playboy girls are white blonds so of course they gave the part to a white blond girl. Get over it. The point of the girl saying "call me" is to imply that Ford has no morals. In fact thats the entire point of having her in the ad. After having thought about it, it should be Blonds who are outraged for being stereotyped as stupid and loose.prediction Map

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-10-30 @ 10:29:55

gee, how racist would it be if they had put a ditsy black woman in the part instead of a ditsy blonde? You guys are increedibly predictable. When in doubt...play the race card. God knows your constituents are stupid enough to go along with it.

Calling the GOP "racist" is like am anual right of passage. Meanwhile, back in the real world, Bob Byrd is still the "conscience of the senate". And your party's operatives throw oreo's at black republicans.

I see plenty of racism and recognize it when I do. For intance, my wife being black and republican must constantly put up with being called a "sell out", in not the best terms. Hell democrats would spit on her if I wasn't there (of course it wouldn't take me, she is pretty fiesty). On the other hand my GOP brothers and sisters by and large welcome her with open arms. Unlike you, I don't have to go out of my way to label things as "racist" that aren't. I can see it.
prediction Map

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-10-30 @ 10:33:22

db,
Why don't you try actually adding something to the conversation? Partisan? I would say your more petty then partisan. You have absolutely nothing of any substance to add to the conversation so you chase me around the boards and constantly make an ass of yourself.
prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-10-30 @ 11:58:23

Did you read my post at all meejer? I did agree with you after all.prediction Map

 By: mgrossbe (D-IN) - 2006-10-30 @ 13:43:53

You and i clearly disagree on the ad and that is okay. As i stated for many its because they truely due not tend to see underlying racial play because they are so tolerant it does not register. however, the could have used a black women and had the same effect the claim they were trying to make. It striking to me how quickly Corker came out against if there was not atleast hints then he would not have done so as rapidly as he did. As to the parties and race i think both parties have race issue and the dems have a really striking anti-semitism streak. But, both of these viewpoints are in the fringe of the party. I believe most reps. and dems are good people. As far as byrd goes should he not be forgiven for past mistakes by his recent actions. If allen had come out right away an apologized for the whole macca incident sincerly accepting he knew what he was saying i would have forgiven him right then and there. I fervently believe in forgiveness upon antonment and acceptance of ill advised actions(in most cases, rapists h--- no.) As far as your wife goes i know that bs goes on i never really saw it until i moved up to indy but man its crap they way people react. I would never call for instance steele a token or oreo everyone has their right to choose. I just believe my party helps out minorities more than yours disagree or not that what i think. I grew up poor and with minorities and i never will forget how the government can help them overcome their situations and thats why i a dem. prediction Map

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-10-30 @ 13:51:48

padfoot,

I wasn't replying to you. Sorry if you misunderstood. I was replying to mg, and his interpretation of what constitutes "racism". Which seems to basicly boil down to whatever the liberal CW says it does at the moment.

I really hate it when liberal white people try to define "racism". They really don't have a clue. In fact, they tend to see more "racism than Jesse jackson and Al Sharpton combined. Call it Liberal guilt if you want. I prefer to call it what it is and what the President rightly identified it as. "The soft bigotry of low expectations". The thought that someone needs extra help, or that they need to be given "preferences" in life because of the color of thier skin is disgusting. I and my family find it completely insulting and degrading. If most libs really want to find bigots all they have to do is look in a mirror.
prediction Map

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-10-30 @ 13:55:24

additionally mg,
If they had put a dopey black woman in the ad as opposed to a dopey white woman...then, it would have been racist.
prediction Map

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-10-30 @ 13:59:14

As far as Byrd goes, I guess if we're supposed to forgive him for recruiting people into the KKK, we're also supposed to forgive him for throwing around the n-word on the senate floor in 2001. I don't believe he ever apologized to all the white n-words and black n-words he identified in that speech. your hypocracy is noted.prediction Map

 By: mgrossbe (D-IN) - 2006-10-30 @ 14:16:54

Okay meejer what is up your butt man. you really hate me for some reason. even when i try be civil with you your an a--. Still, i would forgive you in a heart beat even if you didnt antone just changed. Im sure i can come of pretty bad sometimes too. Espcially about legal issues, it makes me good at my job but not in interactions with people. Sometimes i should sit and relax a second before i respond. Maybe thats your problem too. I dunno either way if i have been to over the top i will try to relax it. I see your point on using a black women too. Heck i think the best thing would have been to have a fake hef mention the party in all honesty. I actually did not know that byrd had done that. Did not really start following politics until after school.I know he has atoned for his actions early in life but if that is the case go rease(i think that who he is against). Just to let you know i have never voted a straight ticket in my life. I always vote for lugar and i vote for rep mayor in my city because the dems are always to liberal for me. You would probably call them rino and in most case they are however they are who i align with. i can not see how you call that hypocrasy prior to that statement. Other than allen and that in question ad when have you ever heard me cry racism i don't banter it around as you claim. I call things as i see it. i get into with dems when they are being anti-semitic which frankly happens far to much for my taste. There is real hatred for isreal in the left which i can never understand. but just like you can be rational i would never group you with the fringe of the right and i would hope you give me the same respect but that is as always your choice.

Last Edit: 2006-10-30 @ 15:26:48
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 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-10-30 @ 18:59:24

see we can make progress. I do not hate you. I am passionate in my beliefs and I defend them. I also recognize that you are not a hack and have had a decent discussion with you on several issues where we are not that far apart. My reaction to calling the ad "racist" is reactionary...you are correct about that. I just get so fed up with the left labling everything they don't agree with as "racist". Espaecially when people who have no Idea what racism really is do it. Espeacially when it is they themselves who insult and degrade my children by assuming they need more "help". They don't, and wouldn't want it. Sorry, I know your not db.prediction Map

 By: mgrossbe (D-IN) - 2006-10-30 @ 19:22:06

Coo,

All is forgiven, we both have had to face the hatred of asinine people who do not have a clue what it is like to be different. You know both of us are pretty similar(outside of our beliefs which is fine) in the fact that we are passionate and allow that to over take our normal commen sense approach to things. On the whole crying racism i clearly see your point to many people on my side cry that out not knowing what true discrimantion is. As far as your last point, i have seen how a little help for hard working poor kids helps them achieve success that they could not have prior. My classic example(prior to reducitons in the GI bill) is my friend elmer, his father was killed in the first iraq war and whenever he would get too depressed on his birthday about his dad not being his mom would say that his dad gave him the greatest present ever a education. You know what he did with that became a finicial analyst who now works for merril lynch. Just a little acendotal evidence. again my upbring is a huge factor in my opinions.
prediction Map

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-10-31 @ 09:51:51

Dude I get the GIBILL. Ther have been only increases. Where do you get your misinformation from?prediction Map

 By: mgrossbe (D-IN) - 2006-10-31 @ 16:14:55

I thought they reduced the credit for the children of the soldiers who die in action i know there has been increase but i was under the assumption that that had been parlayed with the increase. Honestly i do not know i was taking to my friends wife who just was lost in iraq this summer and she was worried about that for her son. That is what she told me, i just took her for her word because i thought she would know. For i brought up elmer, if that is not the case great. You can see how much i like that provision. having never served though, i appluad you for it and unlike some libs that is heart felt, so i don't not know the gibill its not something that comes up for me we have other people in my office that deal with solidiers. I tend to work public education and estate and legal code/standards thats the types of laws firms i interned at in law shcool or before. prediction Map

 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-11-01 @ 01:01:17

If thier is anything for the children of soldiers its new. When I got it, it was not transferable. I wish it would have been completely transferable, I would have passed it to my son. dead or not I know the way it was...I could use it, that was all. There are other programs for the choldren of service members. maybe she was talking about one of those. I am unaware of any cuts.prediction Map

 By: mgrossbe (D-IN) - 2006-11-01 @ 15:50:29

I'll take your word for it. I have no clue. prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2010 Senate 25/37 13/37 38/74 51.4% pie 1 345 408T
P 2009 Governor 1/2 0/2 1/4 25.0% pie 1 132 92T
P 2008 President 53/56 34/56 87/112 77.7% pie 6 2 306T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 23/33 56/66 84.8% pie 5 2 14T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 10/11 21/22 95.5% pie 3 2 3T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 112 1T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 26/33 58/66 87.9% pie 11 9 10T
P 2006 Governor 36/36 24/36 60/72 83.3% pie 8 1 32T
Aggregate Predictions 194/211 133/211 327/422 77.5% pie


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