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Race to the Moon

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Prediction Map



* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		25 |	33 |	50 |
Dem	14
Rep	17
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 |	33 |	50 |
Dem	13
Rep	14
Ind	2
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-1	-2	-3	13	1	14	-3
Rep	+1	+1	+2	0	0	0	14	1	15	+2
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats Democratic 14 27 41 Republican 17 40 57 Independent 2 0 2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
33	25	8

Comments
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Member Comments

 By: italian-boy (D-ITA) - 2006-09-20 @ 13:42:30

I am surprised GOP doesn't pick California and New York in your map... Seriously,that map is a complete joke.

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 By: Dick Cheney (R-VA) - 2006-09-20 @ 14:01:58

You forgot Florida. What about Harris winning? Or do you think her campaign may be derailed by her having to go into rehab at the Betty Ford clinic for Maybelleine abusers.

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 By: db099221 (D-PA) - 2006-09-20 @ 17:26:14

Worse than Meejer's. Barely worth discussing. Why don't you just give three more so you can have 60 seats? That's a nice round number. Last Edit: 2006-09-20 @ 17:27:04

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 By: Olawakandi (D-IL) - 2006-09-20 @ 17:39:50

Swann is going to drag down Santorum, I know that you want Santorum to win but Casey is ahead even in independent polls like SV and QU not just in liberal polls. Last Edit: 2006-09-20 @ 17:40:24

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 By: StatesRights (C-FL) - 2006-09-20 @ 19:16:59

Italian Boy, You have Democrats picking up Virginia? What a joke. Seriously, base your comments on the facts and not merely your hackishness. My map is well within the realm of possibility. Last Edit: 2006-09-20 @ 19:20:29

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 By: Olawakandi (D-IL) - 2006-09-20 @ 20:19:16

I don't have Dems picking up VA but PA and MT the Dems should win there is no poll having the incumbants within the margin of error.

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 By: db099221 (D-PA) - 2006-09-20 @ 21:10:56

Hell will freeze over when the GOP wins ALL of the main five AND Maryland AND New Jersey AND Tennessee AND Virginia - not to mention the biased confidence in several of those states.

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 By: Olawakandi (D-IL) - 2006-09-20 @ 21:17:29

The states that has the lead outside the margin of error the challengers should not lose, and that is PA and MT.

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 By: italian-boy (D-ITA) - 2006-09-21 @ 13:05:18

StatesRIghts,you put MICHIGAN as a TOSSUP,and every single state where GOP is behind by less than 10% is won by it.Now,what's the most possible,Maryland to Steele or Virginia to Webb?

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 By: Ernest (I-SC) - 2006-09-21 @ 13:29:08

While this is an extremely optimistic map for the GOP, except for Pennsylvania, it's not impossible.

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 By: StatesRights (C-FL) - 2006-09-21 @ 13:54:19

Italian Boy, I admit, I don't know a lot of the races all that well, my confidence map is probably well off. I'm only really tracking a few of the races personally so a lot of the others are still set to their defaults. The only races I really care about are MD, VA and FL with some slight interest in NJ and Mass. Personally I think Steele has a better shot at winning in MD then Webb in VA. But both races are pretty close at this point. Last Edit: 2006-09-21 @ 13:55:34

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 By: meejer (R-NC) - 2006-09-21 @ 14:54:13

I have a feeling many of the lib's are going to need alot of heat come November, as if they are correct about your map, I see hell freezing over. Everthing you've put up is entirely plausible. In fact, it is virtually the same map I would have made, had Chafee not had a primary challenge.

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 By: Olawakandi (D-IL) - 2006-09-21 @ 15:04:09

I think it can be possible outside of MD, PA, and MT.

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 By: Z (D-OR) - 2006-09-21 @ 16:04:48

Sure, it's possible. But very unlikely. :P Last Edit: 2006-09-21 @ 16:05:09

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 By: Dick Cheney (R-VA) - 2006-09-21 @ 16:52:21

Of course this map is possible. Why wouldn't we pick up seats in November? Just look at the stellar job we have done with the war in Iraq. And we have so much credibility with the American people. When we make statements to the American people those statements are always supported by facts and evidence that are subsequently revealed. Why, with our record, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't win majorities of historic proportions in both houses of Congress.

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 By: db099221 (D-PA) - 2006-09-21 @ 19:00:42

StatesRights Where does your interest come from? Massachusetts and Florida will be landslides. NJ, VA, MD are close races, but what about Missouri, Ohio, Montana, Tennessee, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania (not in any order)? meejer No one takes you seriously after your ignorant statement "Ford has ZERO chance." Last Edit: 2006-09-21 @ 19:01:12

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 By: db099221 (D-PA) - 2006-09-21 @ 19:02:43

StatesRights You called italian-boy "hackish" for having Webb win in VA, but then you said the race is close. Isn't that a contradiction?

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 By: StatesRights (C-FL) - 2006-09-22 @ 07:03:39

I think in the end people will reject Webb. VA is staying Republican for a while longer.

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 By: Olawakandi (D-IL) - 2006-09-22 @ 08:23:10

The state has only sent 2 Dem senators since 1964 to VA. And Chuck Robb was an office holder already. Last Edit: 2006-09-22 @ 08:23:31

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 By: db099221 (D-PA) - 2006-09-22 @ 15:18:02

I still don't see why you're watching MA and FL; those two (at least the first one) are guaranteed to be landslides.

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 By: Olawakandi (D-IL) - 2006-09-22 @ 15:34:26

You mean MI.

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 By: db099221 (D-PA) - 2006-09-22 @ 15:40:05

No, I don't. StatesRights is watching MA and FL for some reason.

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 By: Olawakandi (D-IL) - 2006-09-22 @ 16:21:09

So much for watching PA, Casey is up by 21 pts.

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 By: Smash255 (D-NY) - 2006-09-22 @ 16:45:40

states You might think Allen will win, and at this point I agree with you, and I agree its close. However, their is no reason to start name calling for someone predicting the opposite of what you think in a race you think will still be close. In a race that looks like a blwoout, then ok, but not in a race you yourself admit is close

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 By: StatesRights (C-FL) - 2006-09-22 @ 18:24:45

Smash, once again you only read one side of the story. They started the attacks on me.

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 By: Smash255 (D-NY) - 2006-09-22 @ 18:53:16

States I think the personal attacks on both sides are a bit of a stretch, but one personal attack was for reasonable predictions you ahppen to disagree with the other personal attacks (the ones in your direction) were based off unreasonable predictions.

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 By: StatesRights (C-FL) - 2006-09-22 @ 19:09:49

My predictions aren't all that unreasonable. Some of the more sensible members here, Ernest, for example does not put my map out of the realm of possibility. Last Edit: 2006-09-22 @ 19:11:01

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 By: db099221 (D-PA) - 2006-09-22 @ 19:16:18

You still haven't answered why you're watching the boring, landslide races of MA and FL. And why aren't you watching the other COMPETITIVE races?

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 By: Smash255 (D-NY) - 2006-09-22 @ 20:32:33

I can undertsnad why he is watching FL, its his state. The unreasonable aspects, how comfortable you are with your Santorum pick in PA, the Chafee pick in RI, the Corker pick in TN, the Steele pick in MD the Allen pick in VA. While I disagree with on several of the outcomes, thats not what I am saying is unrealistic. What is unrealistic is the certainty you make with some of those pcks.

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 By: StatesRights (C-FL) - 2006-09-22 @ 21:27:56

Well I never guaranteed the accuracy of my certainess... ;) Like I said earlier, I wasn't sure about them so I just left most of them at the default. I'm more interested in just getting the states right over %'s so you might as well ignore that aspect. I never said I was watching Massachusetts, DB. I said I was watching MD because that's one of my home states. Last Edit: 2006-09-22 @ 21:28:29

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 By: db099221 (D-PA) - 2006-09-22 @ 21:46:12

StatesRights You said, "...with some slight interest in NJ and Mass." And your confidence levels in some states are way too optimistic.

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 By: StatesRights (C-FL) - 2006-09-22 @ 22:25:24

Opps! I meant CT!! My bad. And read above about what I said about the confidence map.

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 By: db099221 (D-PA) - 2006-09-22 @ 22:58:18

And what about FL? It's certain to be a Nelson victory, and most probably a landslide.

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 By: StatesRights (C-FL) - 2006-09-22 @ 23:38:01

No, Nelsons' ceiling is 57%.

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 By: db099221 (D-PA) - 2006-09-23 @ 12:53:29

EVERYONE downwithdaleft (R-NJ) and Ultra Liberal (G-SAU) are one and the same. Please condemn this disgraceful practice of double identities. Last Edit: 2006-09-23 @ 12:56:56

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