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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:7

Prediction Map
Gabu Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Gabu Map


Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Tos5
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+50+50-1-114216+4
Rep000-50-59110-5
Ind0+1+1000011+1


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic212748
Republican104050
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
593227
piepiepie

Comments

I don't like the way things are looking in Montana, but I'm going to be bold and say that Democrats win in both Missouri and Virginia. In all honesty, I'm pessimistic about Democrats' chances of winning anywhere that it's close, but we'll see.

The breakdown of confidence goes like this:

Strong - I would be seriously, seriously surprised if the other candidate won this race. The other candidate should get nowhere near victory.

Lean - It's possible that the other candidate could win, but it's not the likely outcome. Victory here will likely be within single digits.

Tossup - I really have no idea what to think here. If the other guy won, I honestly would not be surprised. It's anybody's game, and whoever wins will win it with a very small margin.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2008 President 49/56 32/56 81/112 72.3% pie 1 537 474T
P 2008 Dem Primary 3/52 2/52 5/104 4.8% pie 5 - 264
P 2008 Rep Primary 3/49 1/49 4/98 4.1% pie 5 - 225T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 182 1T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 27/33 59/66 89.4% pie 7 0 7T
P 2006 Governor 34/36 31/36 65/72 90.3% pie 14 0 1T
P 2004 President 55/56 42/56 97/112 86.6% pie 10 1 24T
Aggregate Predictions 179/285 138/285 317/570 55.6% pie


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