Election 2006 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:7

Prediction Map
Gabu Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
Gabu Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	10
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	5
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	0	+5	0	-1	-1	14	2	16	+4
Rep	0	0	0	-5	0	-5	9	1	10	-5
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	27	48
Republican	10	40	50
Independent	2	0	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
59	32	27

Comments

I don't like the way things are looking in Montana, but I'm going to be bold and say that Democrats win in both Missouri and Virginia. In all honesty, I'm pessimistic about Democrats' chances of winning anywhere that it's close, but we'll see.

The breakdown of confidence goes like this:

Strong - I would be seriously, seriously surprised if the other candidate won this race. The other candidate should get nowhere near victory.

Lean - It's possible that the other candidate could win, but it's not the likely outcome. Victory here will likely be within single digits.

Tossup - I really have no idea what to think here. If the other guy won, I honestly would not be surprised. It's anybody's game, and whoever wins will win it with a very small margin.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2008 President	49/56	32/56	81/112	72.3%	1	537	474	T
2008 Dem Primary	3/52	2/52	5/104	4.8%	5	-	264
2008 Rep Primary	3/49	1/49	4/98	4.1%	5	-	225	T
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	182	1	T
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	27/33	59/66	89.4%	7	0	7	T
2006 Governor	34/36	31/36	65/72	90.3%	14	0	1	T
2004 President	55/56	42/56	97/112	86.6%	10	1	24	T
Aggregate Predictions	179/285	138/285	317/570	55.6%

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