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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-05 Version:7
* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat
|Prediction Key||Confidence Key|
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
||Seats Not Up
Final Senate prediction. Changes from September’s prediction and explanations for them:
Arizona: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. Pederson seems to be closing the gap. Or maybe not. In any case, a Pederson victory is not ENTIRELY out of the question over here; it’s just a twenty-to-one shot. But hey, miracles do happen. Kyl’s flailing approval rating is cause for slight optimism.
Connecticut: “Tossup” to “Lean I”. In the end, the Joementum beat out the Nedraline. The only thing that can save Lamont now is straight-ticked voters and people who don’t look beyond the second candidate on the ballot. Eerily, I’m not entirely willing to discount either one.
Delaware: “D>50” to “D>60”. No improvement on Carper’s approval rating, but you can’t argue with the election polls.
Florida: “D>50” to “D>60”. Harris is winning the “who does Florida hate more?” contest by unprecidented margins. If you fight hard enough, Katherine, you might just finish with less than 35% of the vote!
Maine: “R>60” to “R>70”. I’m probably gonna regret predicting that a Republican wins reelection in a liberal state by more than 70% of the vote in 2006, but Snowe ain’t your Mama’s Republican. In fact, she’s the Senate’s most popular member, and her approval rating happens to be at a thirteen month high. She’s quite possibly the only Republican in the Senate I’D feel comfortable voting for.
Maryland: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Though the polls haven’t really moved in this race, this just isn’t the year for a Republican takeover of Maryland. Sorry, Mr. Steele; you ran a hell of a campaign.
Massachusetts: “D>70” to “D>60”. This one’s been bothering me for a long time. Call me a fool, but I just don’t see Kennedy breaking 70%. The election polls don’t add up to it, and neither does his approval rating.
Minnesota: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. I’m always reluctant to categorize open seats as strong for anyone, but if any race warrants it, it’s this one. Klobuchar is unstoppable.
“New Jersey: “R>50” to “D>50”. I’d like to say I was foolish for predicting Kean would win given the prevailing national circumstances and New Jersey’s liberalism, but, well, Menendez’s 38% approval rating keeps me in doubt even now.
Ohio: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Speaking of 38% approval ratings: DeWine is basically out for the count; the Republicans have practically admitted it. It’s “lean” because I’m not brave enough to stare down incumbents.
Virginia: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. I didn’t believe it until now, but the GOP’s political superstar of 2000 really IS in trouble. This race and the Missouri race are the two that will decide it all, and though polling is simply too close to call in both cases, I have the Republicans winning both. They can’t hurt me if I have low expectations.
Washington: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. The “Washington as a possible GOP pickup” idea is SO June.
Wyoming: “R>60” to “R>70”. Recent polls show Thomas probably WILL break the 70% mark, but it’ll be by the slimmest of margins.
By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-05 @ 04:43:56
By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-05 @ 04:52:39
By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-05 @ 08:12:27
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