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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-05 Version:7

Prediction Map
Aguagon Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Aguagon Map


Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep11
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind2
 
Tos6
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+40+40-1-114216+3
Rep000-40-410111-4
Ind0+1+1000011+1


Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic202747
Republican114051
Independent202
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
583127
piepiepie

Comments

Final Senate prediction. Changes from September’s prediction and explanations for them:

Arizona: “Strong R” to “Lean R”. Pederson seems to be closing the gap. Or maybe not. In any case, a Pederson victory is not ENTIRELY out of the question over here; it’s just a twenty-to-one shot. But hey, miracles do happen. Kyl’s flailing approval rating is cause for slight optimism.

Connecticut: “Tossup” to “Lean I”. In the end, the Joementum beat out the Nedraline. The only thing that can save Lamont now is straight-ticked voters and people who don’t look beyond the second candidate on the ballot. Eerily, I’m not entirely willing to discount either one.

Delaware: “D>50” to “D>60”. No improvement on Carper’s approval rating, but you can’t argue with the election polls.

Florida: “D>50” to “D>60”. Harris is winning the “who does Florida hate more?” contest by unprecidented margins. If you fight hard enough, Katherine, you might just finish with less than 35% of the vote!

Maine: “R>60” to “R>70”. I’m probably gonna regret predicting that a Republican wins reelection in a liberal state by more than 70% of the vote in 2006, but Snowe ain’t your Mama’s Republican. In fact, she’s the Senate’s most popular member, and her approval rating happens to be at a thirteen month high. She’s quite possibly the only Republican in the Senate I’D feel comfortable voting for.

Maryland: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Though the polls haven’t really moved in this race, this just isn’t the year for a Republican takeover of Maryland. Sorry, Mr. Steele; you ran a hell of a campaign.

Massachusetts: “D>70” to “D>60”. This one’s been bothering me for a long time. Call me a fool, but I just don’t see Kennedy breaking 70%. The election polls don’t add up to it, and neither does his approval rating.

Minnesota: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. I’m always reluctant to categorize open seats as strong for anyone, but if any race warrants it, it’s this one. Klobuchar is unstoppable.

“New Jersey: “R>50” to “D>50”. I’d like to say I was foolish for predicting Kean would win given the prevailing national circumstances and New Jersey’s liberalism, but, well, Menendez’s 38% approval rating keeps me in doubt even now.

Ohio: “Tossup” to “Lean D”. Speaking of 38% approval ratings: DeWine is basically out for the count; the Republicans have practically admitted it. It’s “lean” because I’m not brave enough to stare down incumbents.

Virginia: “Lean R” to “Tossup”. I didn’t believe it until now, but the GOP’s political superstar of 2000 really IS in trouble. This race and the Missouri race are the two that will decide it all, and though polling is simply too close to call in both cases, I have the Republicans winning both. They can’t hurt me if I have low expectations.

Washington: “Lean D” to “Strong D”. The “Washington as a possible GOP pickup” idea is SO June.

Wyoming: “R>60” to “R>70”. Recent polls show Thomas probably WILL break the 70% mark, but it’ll be by the slimmest of margins.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-05 @ 04:43:56

When meejer calls the Virginia incumbent "scum," then you know there is trouble. prediction Map

 By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-05 @ 04:52:39

I must have missed that one. Definately concur. If even meejer can't stand the guy you know he's in trouble.prediction Map

 By: Rock_nj (D-NJ) - 2006-11-05 @ 08:12:27

Excellent summary above. I agree with just about everything.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 64 17T
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 7 1 47T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 24/33 56/66 84.8% pie 7 1 11T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 4 1 89T
P 2012 Rep Primary 37/52 16/52 53/104 51.0% pie 23 - 64T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 8 0 34T
P 2010 Governor 35/37 28/37 63/74 85.1% pie 4 0 11T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 5 21 1T
P 2008 President 54/56 47/56 101/112 90.2% pie 13 1 6T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 8 1 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 3 1 27T
P 2008 Dem Primary 39/52 22/52 61/104 58.7% pie 20 - 38T
P 2008 Rep Primary 38/49 21/49 59/98 60.2% pie 17 - 14
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 169 1T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 27/33 58/66 87.9% pie 7 2 10T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 23/36 58/72 80.6% pie 8 1 44T
Aggregate Predictions 450/503 325/503 775/1006 77.0% pie


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