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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:70

Prediction Map
Mark Warner 08 Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Mark Warner 08 Map

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total

Predicted Senate Control (110th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages


Definite Final Prediction !

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

 By: Mark Warner 08 (G-AUT) - 2006-11-08 @ 10:58:49

I hope MT and VA will be called any time soon, then I would have nailed it in my prediction :-)prediction Map

 By: cnbpjb (--GA) - 2006-11-08 @ 11:36:15

Well, Mark you won't be the only one.

I predict that we will have a final outcome in Montana before one in Virginia (Montana seems to be quicker with it's recount than Virginia is). I predict it will still be a squeeker, but as the recount continues Tester, D. keeps increasing his lead. I think sometime this afternoon Burns, R. will reluctantly concede and then go off an take a nap. -:) Hopefully someone will give Burns some milk and cookies before hand. (And hopefully he will get treatment for his snoring. -:))

As far as Virginia the original count is actually not done, yet. The last I checked there are two areas still outstanding on the counting of the votes (latest according to the Virginia state Elections Board):

ISLE OF WIGHT county (92.3% of the precincts counted) where Allen is ahead by 1937 votes.

And FAIRFAX city (85.71 of the precinct counted) where Webb is ahead by 1005 votes.

I would think that ISLE OF WIGHT will go for Allen when all votes are counted, and probably between 1000 to 3000 votes. Which probably won't help him as much, as well as Webb winning in,

FAIRFAX city, by between 1000 to 2000 votes.

And then Allen will probably ask for an automatic recount, and then probably for another recount, and finally both sides calling in an attorney.

And so for this election year, welcome to this country's new Ohio, Florida and Washington state:


Last Edit: 2006-11-08 @ 11:37:12
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 By: Mark Warner 08 (G-AUT) - 2006-11-08 @ 12:29:47

Allen won´t find additional 4000 votes in the recount. He may try it, but this will even make him look like a loser more than ever before.prediction Map

 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-08 @ 14:20:45

I am unaware specifically with Virginia law but usually if the outcome of a vote is within 1%, the challenger can request a recount. At this point, I think Allen deserves a recount but I doubt there will be enough votes to change the outcome. prediction Map

 By: DanR (D-NC) - 2006-11-08 @ 17:52:24

Virginia law provides for a recount at the state's expense when the margin is below 1%. If greater than 1%, it is at the candidate's expense. In any case it will only occur if Allen requests it.

Last year we had an Attorney General race decided by 323 votes. I was an observer at the recount in my county. In Virginia the recount is really more like a repeat of the original state canvass. There is no recounting of ballots unless evidence is presented to the court of problems with the original count. There were only ten precincts in which a full recount was ordered in last year's AG recount. And the original count changed less than 30 votes.

If Webb's margin remains aroung 8000 after the full canvass, there is little likelyhood a recount would change things anywhere near that. I would expect that at that point Allen will concede without asking for a recount.

In any event, this one ain't gonna change. Webb has won and we have 51 Democrats in the Senate.

I believe I called this back in April. Pardon me while I go polish my crystal ball.

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 By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-08 @ 22:48:48

Does not look like Allen will contest the race. As long as Lieberman doesn't jump ship, I think the Dems have this one. Personally, I cannot wait until 2008 when Rick Santorum will run for County dog catcher and lose that race as well. He got quite the butt kicking last night. I think I am actually gonna miss that guy. He was always good for a joke or two. prediction Map

 By: gumball machine (L-CA) - 2006-11-21 @ 19:00:53

Yeah Mark Warner 08. You were the only person on Earth to predict the Macaca incident, Mrs. Allen revealing she was Jewish, and that George Allen used the word ni**er, which were the only events that made this race BARELY go for Webb! I'm stiking to my bet that John MCCain will call Hillary Clinton a "heshe", giving her the election by 73 points.prediction Map

 By: Olawakandi (D-IL) - 2006-11-26 @ 18:03:24

Also, having a Democratic governor for two terms also helps your campaign and if Allen had a republican governor it would of helped him. VA is a moderate to conservative state but with Democratic governors it helps the Democrats a great deal.

Last Edit: 2006-11-26 @ 18:04:06
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 32/36 25/36 57/72 79.2% pie 8 0 82T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 23/36 54/72 75.0% pie 8 0 4T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 5 1 17T
P 2012 President 55/56 48/56 103/112 92.0% pie 4 1 26T
P 2012 Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 5 1 20T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 4 1 24T
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 23/52 69/104 66.3% pie 32 - 8T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 4 2 37T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 29/37 64/74 86.5% pie 9 1 6T
P 2010 Governor 35/37 28/37 63/74 85.1% pie 7 1 11T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 3 0 1T
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 18 1 74T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 23/33 56/66 84.8% pie 4 1 14T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 9/11 20/22 90.9% pie 2 1 9T
P 2008 Dem Primary 21/52 9/52 30/104 28.8% pie 3 - 150T
P 2008 Rep Primary 13/49 4/49 17/98 17.3% pie 3 - 169T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 3 86 1T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 70 0 20T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 26/36 61/72 84.7% pie 52 0 22T
Aggregate Predictions 487/579 351/579 838/1158 72.4% pie

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