Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-11 Version:18

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

Confidence States Won

State Pick-ups

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Analysis
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Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: mob (-MN) 2008-10-11 @ 16:25:22
I'm still not entirely sure how to differentiate between the two regular seats in Wyoming and Mississippi and the two special elections. Any thoughts?

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-10-12 @ 22:18:23
I just use MS to represent the MS-"B" special election between Musgrove & Wicker. There's no way to differentiate, so I use the state to depict the competitive race. Nice shading in MN. Who is the independent and why is he getting so much support. (other than the fact its MN).

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-10-12 @ 23:59:25
Dean Barkley. I was just watching the Minnesota Senatorial Debate on C-SPAN, not bad. All three candidates are good. Barkley won't win, but he's going to take a big vote chunk. Also I'm glad someone else noticed the problem of differentiating between the two races going on in Wyoming and Mississippi. In Mississippi I've been under the assumption it's the Cochran race. In Wyoming it doesn't matter.

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2008-10-13 @ 00:00:22
Although I'm curious what makes you place South Carolina and Tennessee in the toss-up categories.

By: mob (-MN) 2008-10-14 @ 16:26:51
You mean Georgia and Tennessee? I meant to have it actually be Georgia and Kentucky, but I clicked on the wrong state. There's been some polling that the races there are getting close. I try to guess what will end up happening. It doesn't look good, I think.

By: mob (-MN) 2008-10-14 @ 16:28:59
Also, Dean Barkley was in fact a U.S. Senator from Minnesota for a brief time in 2002 between Wellstone's death and Coleman's swearing-in in January 2003. He was appointed by Gov. Ventura. Barkley is polling around 18% right now. I don't think he'll pull it out like Ventura did in the 1998 gubernatorial race, but he'll certainly make it interesting. Especially since the ad wars between Coleman and Franken have been so nasty. Heck, part of me wants to vote for Barkley just for that sole reason.

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