PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - CollectiveInterest (I-IL) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-23 Version:16

Prediction Map
CollectiveInterest MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
CollectiveInterest MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem23
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind1
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+8+3+1100012012+11
Rep000-9-3-12729-12
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic233659
Republican92635
Independent123
pie

Analysis

Ted Stevens said stupid stuff at his trial. No one says stuff that stupid unless they are guilty of something. And jurors aren't in the mood to cut powerful pols a break even if the prosecution did a half-assed job.

Barkeley surges b/c of negative campaigning and people being generally PO'd at Dems and Republicans.

The Obama landslide combined with anti-GOP sentiment and McCain's horrible campaign tip the balance in the remaining races, plus John Cornyn being an effing moron.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: CollectiveInterest (I-IL) 2008-10-27 @ 16:56:14
G-U-I-L-T-Y.

F-you, Uncle Ted.
prediction Map

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-10-28 @ 00:23:29
Aside from Barkley, its possible.

Coryn loosing at this point is improbable, however much of a moron he is.

Dems. running the table of KY, GA & MS-B is unlikely.
prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2008 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 37 1 100T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 19/33 49/66 74.2% pie 17 6 144T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 1 343 152T264
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 35 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 6 4 156T465
P 2006 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 4 4 122T312
P 2004 President 43/56 22/56 65/112 58.0% pie 42 1 1721T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 201/228 131/228 332/456 72.8% pie


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