Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2008-10-31 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	12
Ind	1
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	10
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	+3	+8	0	0	0	12	0	12	+8
Rep	0	0	0	-6	-3	-9	10	2	12	-9
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	20	36	56
Republican	12	26	38
Independent	1	2	3

Analysis

Finally an update, though mostly on confidence. The only result change is that of Georgia, to reflect that the race will remain undecided on Nov. 5, as neither candidate will garner an outright majority. There will be a runoff election in December. Therefore, including independents, the Democratic caucus will have 59 members, to 40 for the GOP. The last seat, potentially the Dems. 60th, will be determined in Dec.

This aside, the closest race currently appears to be in Minnesota. I still class MS-B and KY as toss-ups, though with a GOP tilt. Last minute campaigning by the Clintons in KY and black turnout in MS could turn the tide, however. I will update on Monday if necessary.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-11-01 @ 12:18:29
Anyone know if Liep scores on election day voting, even if its inconclusive?? So if Chambliss gets a plurality, but not over 50%, you win with a Chambliss 40%+ prediction despite the fact that there will be a runoff?

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-11-02 @ 17:04:42
I'd like to think GA goes to a rn off - Chambliss deserves to lose after the lowlife campaign he ran in 02.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%	7	6	434	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	21/35	54/70	77.1%	4	4	101	T	423
2018 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	3	27	132	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	23/36	56/72	77.8%	3	21	94	T	372
2016 President	53/56	22/56	75/112	67.0%	21	1	440	T	678
2016 Senate	28/34	17/34	45/68	66.2%	5	5	277	T	362
2016 Governor	7/12	2/12	9/24	37.5%	1	94	269	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	21/36	55/72	76.4%	4	0	122	T	382
2014 Governor	27/36	17/36	44/72	61.1%	2	16	171	T	300
2012 President	54/56	41/56	95/112	84.8%	9	0	314	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	14/33	46/66	69.7%	1	191	189	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	35/52	12/52	47/104	45.2%	10	-	83	T	231
2010 Senate	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	9	15	116	T	456
2010 Governor	30/37	15/37	45/74	60.8%	1	299	214	T	312
2008 President	54/56	44/56	98/112	87.5%	22	1	41	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	24/33	56/66	84.8%	5	1	14	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	4	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	45/52	21/52	66/104	63.5%	8	-	26	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	43/49	11/49	54/98	55.1%	11	-	31	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	671/752	389/752	1060/1504	70.5%

Links

Back to 2008 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home