PredictionsNewsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - wingindy (D-IN) ResultsForumPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-31 Version:4

Prediction Map
wingindy Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
wingindy Map


Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind1
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+5+3+800012012+8
Rep000-6-3-910212-9
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic203656
Republican122638
Independent123
pie

Analysis

Finally an update, though mostly on confidence. The only result change is that of Georgia, to reflect that the race will remain undecided on Nov. 5, as neither candidate will garner an outright majority. There will be a runoff election in December. Therefore, including independents, the Democratic caucus will have 59 members, to 40 for the GOP. The last seat, potentially the Dems. 60th, will be determined in Dec.

This aside, the closest race currently appears to be in Minnesota. I still class MS-B and KY as toss-ups, though with a GOP tilt. Last minute campaigning by the Clintons in KY and black turnout in MS could turn the tide, however. I will update on Monday if necessary.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2008-11-01 @ 12:18:29
Anyone know if Liep scores on election day voting, even if its inconclusive?? So if Chambliss gets a plurality, but not over 50%, you win with a Chambliss 40%+ prediction despite the fact that there will be a runoff?prediction Map

 By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-11-02 @ 17:04:42
I'd like to think GA goes to a rn off - Chambliss deserves to lose after the lowlife campaign he ran in 02. prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 9 0 314T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 14/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 191 189T
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 12/52 47/104 45.2% pie 10 - 83T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 9 15 116T
P 2010 Governor 30/37 15/37 45/74 60.8% pie 1 299 214T
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 22 1 41T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 24/33 56/66 84.8% pie 5 1 14T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 4 86T
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 21/52 66/104 63.5% pie 8 - 26T
P 2008 Rep Primary 43/49 11/49 54/98 55.1% pie 11 - 31T
Aggregate Predictions 371/416 209/416 580/832 69.7% pie


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