Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:14

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	14
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	14
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+4	+3	+7	0	0	0	12	0	12	+7
Rep	0	0	0	-4	-3	-7	12	2	14	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	19	36	55
Republican	14	26	40
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
55	32	23

Analysis

State Previous Current Reasoning
AK R50T D50L I think the guilty verdict finally did it in for him. Although I’m not going to mark it as “Strong” because those Alaskan’s sure love their Uncle Ted, and weirder things have happened.
MN R40T R40L I think I’m confident enough to take it out of the Toss-Up category now.
NC D50T D50L Again, I’m confident enough to make this a “Lean” instead of “Toss-Up.”

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 13

State Previous Current
AK D50L R50T
IA D50S D60S
KY R50L R50S
NE R60S R50S
NH D50S D50S
NM D60S D50S
NC R50T D50T
OR R40T D50S

Version: 12

AK from R50T to D50L

Version: 11

State Previous Current
AR D50S D90S
CO D40S D50S
DE D50S D60S
ID R50S R60S
KY R50S R50L
MN R50S R40T
MN R50S R60S
NM D50S D60S
NC R50L R40T
OK R60S R50S
OR R50S R40T
WY R70S R60S

Version: 10

State Previous Current
AL R50S R60S
AK R60S R50T
CO D40T D40S
LA R50T D50S
MA D70S D60S
MN R50S R40S
MS R50L R50S
MT D70S D60S
NM D50L D50S
NC D50S D50L
SD D50S D60S

Version: 9

State Previous Current
MN R50L R50S
NH D40L D50S
NJ D50L D50S

I changed MN to strong, and for some reason, I had NH and NJ as leaning.

I'll probably make NM strong Dem soon, but since it's an open seat, I'll wait until after the primary.

Version: 8

State Previous Current
KY R50L R50S
MS R60S R50L
MT D60L D70S
NH R40T D40L
NM D50S D50L
OR R50L R50S
SD R50S R60S
VA D50S D60S

Version: 7

Changed MN to 50% and Leaning

Version: 6

State Previous Current
NM D50L D50S
MT D50S D60S
SD D40L D50S
OK R50S R60S
NH D50T R40T

Version: 5

LA moved from D50L to R50T, thanks to the latest poll that came out - showing that LA could be competitive, that and how much LA got fed up of Dems lately.

And what's w/ all the MN's going Dem? The last like 10 polls have it Rep - yall need to update your crap.

Version: 4

The only changes: NM went from R50T to D50L
NH from D50S to D50T

Version: 3

State Previous Current
NH D50L D50S
TN R50S R60S
LA D40T D50L
MT D50S D50L

Version: 2

Didn't like MT @ 60%D, so I brought it down to 50% - matches polls a little better, and I don't think we're gonna have that BIG of a margin there.

Version: 1

1st map - here we go!

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	23	74	T	115
2022 Senate	34/35	31/35	65/70	92.9%	1	1	3	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	29/36	64/72	88.9%	1	1	5	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	6	1	T	118
2020 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	1	6	179	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	23/35	56/70	80.0%	1	4	44	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	6	51	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	4	14	T	192
2018 Senate	31/35	25/35	56/70	80.0%	1	1	42	T	483
2018 Governor	30/36	26/36	56/72	77.8%	1	3	94	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	2	40	T	149
2016 President	52/56	35/56	87/112	77.7%	2	1	35	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	23/34	54/68	79.4%	1	1	6	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	2	1	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	11	8	T	112
2014 Senate	33/36	24/36	57/72	79.2%	3	5	82	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	18/36	47/72	65.3%	3	1	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	6	17	T	153
2012 President	54/56	46/56	100/112	89.3%	7	1	115	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	18/33	48/66	72.7%	5	1	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	51	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	43/52	22/52	65/104	62.5%	37	-	22	T	231
2011 Governor	3/4	1/4	4/8	50.0%	1	332	79	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	16	0	21	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	27/37	62/74	83.8%	8	0	17	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	5	6	1	T	103
2008 President	51/56	45/56	96/112	85.7%	32	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	14	1	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	10	1	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	42/52	26/52	68/104	65.4%	30	-	20	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	19/49	60/98	61.2%	31	-	11	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	4	21	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	17/33	47/66	71.2%	10	2	232	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	14	1	36	T	312
2004 President	51/56	25/56	76/112	67.9%	24	4	1441	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	900/994	637/994	1537/1988	77.3%

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