Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	13
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	11
Ind	0
Tos	5
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	+3	+8	0	0	0	12	0	12	+8
Rep	0	0	0	-5	-3	-8	11	2	13	-8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	20	36	56
Republican	13	26	39
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
57	33	24

Analysis

Special elections:

Mississippi: R > 50%, lean
Wyoming: R > 60%, strong

Edit (November 3, 2008):

+10% to Democrats in Alaska, Iowa, North Carolina, and Oregon.

+10% to Republicans in Kansas and Tennessee.

-10% to Republicans in Nebraska.

Moved Colorado and Louisiana from lean Democratic to strong Democratic.

Moved Alaska from tossup to strong Democratic.

Moved Maine from lean Republican to strong Republican.

Moved Georgia and Kentucky from lean Republican to tossup.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	1	2	21	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	28/37	63/74	85.1%	1	2	11	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	1	1	T	103
2008 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%	56	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	3	1	9	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	5/11	16/22	72.7%	2	0	152	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	45/52	24/52	69/104	66.3%	28	-	19		271
2008 Rep Primary	38/49	18/49	56/98	57.1%	25	-	21	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	80	1	T	167
Aggregate Predictions	254/280	175/280	429/560	76.6%

Links

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