Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-07-05 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	16
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	12
Ind	0
Tos	7
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+3	+5	0	0	0	12	0	12	+5
Rep	0	0	0	-2	-3	-5	14	2	16	-5
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	17	36	53
Republican	16	26	42
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
44	30	14

Analysis

I have removed the MS pickup for Dems but retained the Alaska turnover...I actually think that the Alaskans will oust the congressman in the primary and it could happen to the sitting senator too.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2008-08-26 @ 07:36:52
Well today is the Alaskan primary and I predict Stevens will win while Young will lose... The Dems seem to be doing well congressionally but Obama is more of a gamble...

By: HILLBILLY (O-GBR) 2008-08-30 @ 10:29:10
I like this map. Very close to my line of thinking. I'd love to see a Dem victory in MS. But in a presidential year, I think they'll miss the mark - just.

By: FrenchEd (D-NJ) 2008-08-30 @ 12:45:21
Dnul, you got all the states right, but you could probably strengthen the wins in NH, OR, KY, LA and AK. Shaheen and Landrieu are way ahead of Sununu and Kennedy, and Smith and McConnell are doing well. With Stevens still the GOP candidate Alaska is gone. And for all of Palin's support of her Lt Gov, Young still won his primary. Typical of a lightweight: great popularity, no influence. A far-right cheerleader America cannot afford.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	16/56	66/112	58.9%	8	1	614	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	11/34	43/68	63.2%	8	0	317	T	362
2014 Senate	32/36	16/36	48/72	66.7%	19	13	240	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	2	162	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	229	1	T	153
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T	312
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	427/490	179/490	606/980	61.8%

Links

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