PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Predictions - DS0816 (--MI) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-11 Version:2

Prediction Map
DS0816 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
DS0816 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem23
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind0
 
Tos11
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+8+3+1100012012+11
Rep000-8-3-118210-11
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic233659
Republican102636
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
443014
piepiepie

Analysis

10.11.2008 | I'm forecasting the U.S. Senate will get the 60 seats Democrats want for a filibuster-proof majority.

On my confidence map, I have deliberately listed the party pickups as tossups.

It is here I predicted pickups (or pickoffs, if you prefer) of Republicans (incumbents or vacating seats) defeated by Democrats in the following states:

• Alaska (Democrat Mark Begich, unseating Republican Ted Stevens)
• Colorado (Democrat Mark Udall, picking up Senate seat by vacating Republican Wayne Allard)
• Georgia (Democrat Jim Martin, unseating Republican Saxby Chambliss)
• Kentucky (Democrat Bruce Lunsford, unseating Republican Minority Senate Leader Mitch McConnell)
• Minnesota (Democrat Al Franken, unseating Republican Norm Coleman)
• Mississippi (Democrat Ronnie Musgrove, unseating Roger Wicker)
• New Hampshire (Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, unseating Republican John Sununu)
• New Mexico (Democrat Tom Udall, picking up Senate seat by vacating Republican Pete Domenici)
• North Carolina (Democrat Kay Hagan, unseating Republican Elizabeth Dole)
• Oregon (Democrat Jeff Merkley, unseating Republican Gordon Smith)
• Virginia (Democrat Mark Warner, picking up Senate seat by vacating Republican John Warner)

Among the Republican Senate seats I believe will not be lost…
• Maine (Susan Collins)
• South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 4/56 0/56 4/112 3.6% pie 3 60 677678
P 2012 President 56/56 42/56 98/112 87.5% pie 8 10 182T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 18/33 49/66 74.2% pie 2 45 128T343
P 2010 Senate 32/37 21/37 53/74 71.6% pie 5 32 167T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 23/37 56/74 75.7% pie 1 32 106T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 3 1T103
P 2008 President 50/56 38/56 88/112 78.6% pie 10 2 276T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 2 24 281T407
Aggregate Predictions 238/310 158/310 396/620 63.9% pie


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