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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-27 Version:4

Prediction Map
cmbeattie Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
cmbeattie Map


Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+4+3+700012012+7
Rep000-4-3-712214-7
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic193655
Republican142640
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
453213
piepiepie

Analysis

It is possible for Democrats to have a filibuster proof senate till 2010. With the independence caucusing with Democrats it makes 58-42. I can see Norm Coleman losing making 59-41. If Lieberman decides to caucus with the GOP it will change slightly, but most issues he will support Democrats. I don't see sixty because the Democrats will have to take Collins seat in Maine where she is doing very well and is liberal on some issues. Kentucky where McConnell is good. Now it is possible that a filibuster can work in some cases among Conservative Democrats like Bayh Indiana, Others in Florida, Nebraska, and Montana.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 57 17T
P 2012 President 51/56 35/56 86/112 76.8% pie 11 0 591T
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 8 0 144T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 5 0 51T
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 22/52 67/104 64.4% pie 14 - 16T
P 2011 Governor 3/4 1/4 4/8 50.0% pie 3 40 79T
P 2010 Senate 32/37 23/37 55/74 74.3% pie 13 0 133T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 24/37 58/74 78.4% pie 12 0 74T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 4 8 1T
P 2008 President 51/56 26/56 77/112 68.8% pie 7 8 625T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 13/33 45/66 68.2% pie 4 8 257T
P 2008 Governor 10/11 5/11 15/22 68.2% pie 1 193 183T
Aggregate Predictions 301/334 178/334 479/668 71.7% pie


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