Election 2008 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-10 Version:2

Prediction Map

opebo Map

Prediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

opebo Map

Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	13
Ind	0
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	12
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	+3	+8	0	0	0	12	0	12	+8
Rep	0	0	0	-5	-3	-8	11	2	13	-8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	20	36	56
Republican	13	26	39
Independent	0	2	2

pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
46	33	13

Analysis

OK finally updated.. I shifted some confidence measures, and dropped my hopes in Maine while adding Alaska and North Carolina.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy		Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate
2012 President	56/56	48/56	104/112	92.9%		10	15	13	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%		1	36	198	T	343
2010 Senate	32/37	18/37	50/74	67.6%		5	37	221	T	456
2008 President	48/56	35/56	83/112	74.1%		27	5	404	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	13/33	46/66	69.7%		2	25	227	T	407
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%		4	0	156	T	465
2004 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%		22	5	219	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	285/304	183/304	468/608	77.0%

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