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Date of Prediction: 2008-10-29 Version:17

Prediction Map
CollectiveInterest Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
CollectiveInterest Map


Prediction States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem23
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind0
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+8+3+1100012012+11
Rep000-8-3-118210-11
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (111th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic233659
Republican102636
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 66)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
493019
piepiepie

Analysis

Keep an eye on Idaho, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas, Maine and South Carolina.

McCain has abysmal turn-out. Obama and Bush have energized the Dem Party. Some Republicans and many independents will vote for Obama. If these voters vote in down ballot races....

GOP is gonna take a hit.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: CollectiveInterest (I-IL) 2008-11-03 @ 23:43:23
Conventional wisdom is that Musgrove is gonna lose. Something tells me CW is wrong.prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2008 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 37 1 100T
P 2008 Senate 30/33 19/33 49/66 74.2% pie 17 6 144T
P 2008 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 1 343 152T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 35 1T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 6 4 156T
P 2006 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 4 4 122T
P 2004 President 43/56 22/56 65/112 58.0% pie 42 1 1721T
Aggregate Predictions 201/228 131/228 332/456 72.8% pie


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