Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:16

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	26
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	8
Rep	21
Ind	0
Tos	8
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	8	3	11	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	0	0	0	10	8	18	+8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	11	38	49
Republican	26	23	49
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
57	34	23

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 11

The Nevada race seems to be on the verge of breaking. Reid may finally be finished.

Version: 7

With Castle's loss, Delaware moves to lean Democrat.

Version: 6

Kirk moves ahead for now, but I'm still not sure if he'll hold on in IL. In my opinion, IL falls after Nevada, but Reid seems to be holding off the tea-partier.

Version: 3

A lot of races are close, so the Republicans could realize some pretty nice gains or the Democrats may surge back a la Harry Reid.

Version: 2

Not looking good for the Democrats.

Version: 1

Way too early to sufficiently tell what is going on, but early on, the GOP has the advantage. That doesn't mean they won't find a way to screw up their chances by nominating far-rightists which will split their votes.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	31/35	23/35	54/70	77.1%	1	1	205	T	305
2022 Governor	33/36	22/36	55/72	76.4%	1	1	173	T	272
2020 President	52/56	39/56	91/112	81.3%	7	6	359	T	684
2016 President	52/56	40/56	92/112	82.1%	1	1	6	T	678
2012 President	55/56	49/56	104/112	92.9%	6	6	13	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	19/33	49/66	74.2%	1	10	128	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	1	10	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	17/52	9/52	26/104	25.0%	6	-	171	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	16	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	24/37	59/74	79.7%	10	1	59	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	75	41	T	103
2008 President	51/56	43/56	94/112	83.9%	38	1	115	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	21/33	53/66	80.3%	7	2	57	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	4	2	50	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	40/52	25/52	65/104	62.5%	16	-	28	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	43/49	21/49	64/98	65.3%	23	-	3	T	235
2004 President	54/56	27/56	81/112	72.3%	2	1	1142	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	582/668	399/668	981/1336	73.4%