Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	9
Rep	28
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	8
Rep	27
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-5	-5	-10	7	2	9	-10
Rep	+5	+5	+10	0	0	0	10	8	18	+10
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	9	38	47
Republican	28	23	51
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
49	32	17

Analysis

I'm probably going to regret disagreeing with Rasmussen on WV and also adding WA to the GOP pickup list (even with Rossi leading), but that's the numbers. Plus that whole "house never changes without the senate" meme adds to the predictions.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 2

Haven't updated since March. A few seats changed and GOP is at +9

Version: 1

A bit less than 8 months to election day, and the Republicans are flipping 8 seats.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	50/56	45/56	95/112	84.8%	1	2	314	T	760
2010 Senate	32/37	17/37	49/74	66.2%	3	0	242	T	456
2006 U.S. Senate	29/33	18/33	47/66	71.2%	4	12	232	T	465
2004 President	55/56	46/56	101/112	90.2%	7	15	4	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	166/182	126/182	292/364	80.2%

User Info

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