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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:194

Prediction Map
nkpatel1279 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
nkpatel1279 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep24
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem9
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-3-78412-7
Rep+4+3+70-1-110717+6
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic123850
Republican242347
Independent123
 pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
593425
piepiepie

Analysis

Solid Democratic
HI(Inouye-D)67-30-3
VT(Leahy-D)65-31-4
NY-A(Schumer-D)62-35-3
MD(Mikulski-D)60-37-3
Highly popular DEM incumbents in Blue State- vs Sacrificial lamb GOP challengers. 44D
Likely Democratic
OR(Wyden-D)57-40-3
Highly popular DEM incumbent in Purple state vs sacrificial lamb GOP challenger. 45D
DE(Coons-D)55-43-2
OPEN Seat in Blue State- Generic DEM vs sacrficial lamb GOP. 46D. DE is one of the seats GOPs gave DEMs on a silver platter.
Leans Democratic
NY-B(Gillibrand-D)52-43-5
Appointed DEM incumbent in Blue state vs Generic GOP challenger.
CT(Blumenthal-D)52-44-4
OPEN Seat in Blue State- Top Tier DEM vs generic GOP challenger.
CA(Boxer-D)51-45-4
Mediocre DEM in Blue state vs Mediocre GOP challenger. 49D.
Tossup-Democratic Seats.
WV(Manchin-D)51-47-2
Red State-but Democratic nominee is a highly popular 2 term Governor vs generic GOP.
WA(Murray-D)51-49
Mediocre DEM incumbent in Democratic leaning state vs Top Tier GOP. 51D
WV and WA are firewall Democratic seats to remain in the majority.
No Clear Favorite.
IL(Giannoulias-D vs Kirk-R)48-47-5. Blue State-Mediocre DEM vs Mediocre REP.
AK(Murkwoski-I vs Miller-R)38-37-23-2.
Tossup Republican
CO(Buck-R)49-47-4
NV(Angle-R)49-46-5
PA(Toomey-R)52-48.
Democratic held seats in Democratic leaning swing state- will narrowly go Republican due to wave.
Leans Republican
WI(Johnson-R)52-47-1
Weak Democratic Incumbent vs Generic GOP challenger. This is similar to 2002 GA Race Cleland vs Chambliss. An Honorable DEM incumbent loses to a sleazy GOP challenger.
KY(Paul-R)53-47
MO(Blunt-R)53-45-2
Likely Republican
NC(Burr-R)55-44-1
NH(Ayotte-R)55-43-2
FL(Rubio-R)44-31-20-5
OH(Portman-R)56-41-3
LA(Vitter-R)56-39-5
IN(Coats-R)59-40-1
Solid Republican.
AR(Boozman-R)60-38-2
IA(Grassley-R)61-38-1
GA(Isakson-R)62-37-1
AZ(McCain-R)62-35-3
UT(Lee-R)64-35-1
AL(Shelby-R)66-34
KS(Moran-R)66-32-2
OK(Coburn-R)67-32-1
ND(Hoeven-R)68-31-1
SC(DeMint-R)67-28-5
ID(Crapo-R)70-29-1
SD(Thune-R)unopposed.

Democrats will lose between 7 to 8 seats.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpatel1279 (D-MA) 2010-11-02 @ 10:12:31 prediction Map
7pm ET Polls close in GA,IN,KY,SC,and VT.
Republicans are projected to win GA(Isakson-R),IN(Coats-R),KY(Paul-R),SC(DeMint-R)= 27R
Democrats are projected to win VT(Leahy-D)=41D.
7:30pm ET Polls close in OH and WV.
Republicans are projected to win OH(Portman-R). 28R.
WV-(Firewall state-for DEMS and REPS)-if Manchin-D wins. Dems keep control of the US Senate. If Manchin-D lose it will be a long time.
8:00pm ET (AL,CT,DE,FL,IL,MD,MO,NH,OK,and PA).
Republicans are projected to win AL,FL,MO,NH,OK,and PA. 33R.
Democrats are projected to win CT,DE,MD,=44D.
If Dems are unsucessful in WV-then IL is the second must win state for DEM. if Dems win either WV and IL or both.- they keep the Senate if Dems lose both. It will be a long night.
8:30pm ET (AR and NC)
Republicans are projected to win AR and NC. 35R.
9:00pm ET (AZ,CO,KS,LA,NY,SD,WI).
Republicans are projected to win AZ,KS,LA,SD,and WI. 40R.
Democrats are projected to win both NY seats. 46D.
If Dems lose WV and IL- then CO is going to be a must win state for DEMS. if DEMs with either or all (WV,IL,and CO)- Dems keep control of the US Senate. If Republicans win all 3 of WV,IL,and CO- It will be a long night.
10:00pm ET(IA,NV,ND,and UT).
Republicans are projected to win IA,ND,and UT. 43R
If Democrats lose WV,IL,and CO, then NV is going to be a must win state for DEMs. If DEMs win either one or all 4 of those states. DEMS keep control of the US Senate. If Republicans win all 4 states(WV,IL,CO,and NV). It will be a long night.
11:00pm ET(CA,HI,ID,OR,and WA).
Democrats are projected to win CA,HI,and OR.
49D.
Republicans are projected to win ID. 44R.
If Democrats lose WV,IL,CO,and NV then WA is a must win state for DEMs. If DEMS win either or all of WV,IL,CO,NV,and WA- Democrats keep control of the US Senate. If Republicans win WV,IL,CO,NV,and WA.
All eyes are then pointed to AK.
If Republicans win WV,IL,CO,NV,WA and AK. Republicans regain control of the US Senate.
If Republicans win WV,IL,CO,NV,WA but say if Democrats surprisingly win AK. Democrats keep the US Senate- Senate Democratic Leaders ie Chuck Schumer or Dick Durbin should send Sarah Palin flowers. She gave us DE in the silver platter-giving us the Witch. and AK- Had Murkowski not been challenged in the GOP primary. AK would remain in the GOP collumn.
 By: nkpatel1279 (D-MA) 2010-11-02 @ 12:58:04 prediction Map
The Freshman US Senate Class is going to be
AR(John Boozman-R)
CT(Richard Blumenthal-D)
DE(Chris Coons-D)
FL(Marco Rubio-R)
IL(either Alexi Giannoulias-D or Mark Kirk-R)
If Alexi were to lose by a narrow margin-will he have a future in electoral politics in IL- perhaps running for Governor or US Senator in 2014,2016,or 2018.
IN(Dan Coats-R)-does he get back his Seniority.
KS(Jerry Moran-R)
KY(Rand Paul-R)
MO(Roy Blunt-R)
NH(Kelly Ayotte-R)
ND(John Hoeven-R)
OH(Rob Portman-R)
PA(Pat Toomey-R)
UT(Mike Lee-R)
WV(Joe Manchin-D or John Raese-R)-WV is a state-we need to watch tonight if Manchin-D loses-it is a 94 style GOP wave.
WI(Ron Johnson-R)-It is sad to say-Russ is going to lose.
Democratic incumbents in CO,NV,and WA are in the tossup column. WA is likely to remain Democratic. CO and NV will go either way. Bennet if he lose will have a future in electoral politics in CO.
Reid-NV should appear on the TV Show the Defenders.
 By: nkpatel1279 (D-MA) 2010-11-02 @ 14:41:53 prediction Map
Alan Grayson-(FL-8) is going to be one of the Democratic causualties in 2010.
Which one term Democratic US House Member who lost re-election during the 1994 GOP wave was an outspoken progressive.
 By: nkpatel1279 (D-MA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:08:31 prediction Map
Projected winners in IN,SC,VT
IN-Dan Coats(R)
KY-Rand Paul(R)
SC-Jim DeMint(R)
VT-Pat Leahy(D)
GOP gain +1


Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 19:09:39

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2010 Senate 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 194 0 63T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 23/37 56/74 75.7% pie 12 91 106T312
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 19 56T103
P 2008 President 51/56 35/56 86/112 76.8% pie 1 51 324T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 1 51 28T407
Aggregate Predictions 152/165 106/165 258/330 78.2% pie



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