Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:19

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	26
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	26
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	8	3	11	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	0	0	0	10	8	18	+8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	11	38	49
Republican	26	23	49
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
62	34	28

Analysis

Analysis based on 538.com's final forecast (http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate).

Tossup means the frontrunner has less than 60% chances of winning. Lean means it has between 60% and 80%. Strong means it has over 80% chances of prevailing.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: AntonioV (D-CA) 2010-11-06 @ 17:05:41
Ok, so time for a restrospective comment (the merit/blame of course doesn't go to me, of course). "I" was wrong for three States : Nevada (that's the biggest upset, but remember pollster badly underestimated dems in 2008 already), Colorado (though it was close enough not to be a fail) and Alaska (which was a race weird enough for some flukes). Also, dems did notably better in CA, WV and PA, and I think Ayotte was above 60% in NH. Overall, no massive fluke, but I fear I will get a poor score because of a lot of narrowly missed percentages.

By: AntonioV (D-CA) 2010-11-10 @ 14:50:52
Aproximative calculation of my score... Candidate ahead : 34/37 Correct percentage : 28/37 Global score : 62/74 (83.8%) Quite disappointing, considering I got 90.9% in 2008. I won't be among the first ones as last time...

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	33/35	26/35	59/70	84.3%	6	0	69	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	27/36	61/72	84.7%	6	0	51	T	272
2020 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%	13	5	434	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	18/35	50/70	71.4%	8	3	274	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	1	5	10	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	4	35	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%	14	0	24	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	28/36	60/72	83.3%	7	2	18	T	372
2016 President	50/56	30/56	80/112	71.4%	18	0	246	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	21/34	52/68	76.5%	18	0	35	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	6	0	67	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	27/36	61/72	84.7%	8	0	13	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	18/36	49/72	68.1%	5	0	56	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	24	17	T	153
2012 President	56/56	48/56	104/112	92.9%	15	0	13	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	19/33	50/66	75.8%	11	0	111	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	2	31	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	44/52	23/52	67/104	64.4%	27	-	16	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	19	0	21	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	24/37	59/74	79.7%	10	0	59	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	12	92	T	103
2008 President	54/56	45/56	99/112	88.4%	9	0	26	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	27/33	60/66	90.9%	5	0	1	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	4/11	14/22	63.6%	1	5	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	696/751	496/751	1192/1502	79.4%