Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-04-15 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	18
Rep	17
Ind	1
Non	1

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	10
Non	1

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+3	+3	-1	-2	-3	13	2	15	0
Rep	+1	+2	+3	0	-4	-4	12	2	14	-1
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	18	38	56
Republican	17	23	40
Independent	1	2	3

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
41	26	15

Analysis

The economy recovers somewhat and with it so do Democratic poll numbers. The Democrats still lose about 10 seats in the House, but superior Democratic candidates manage to win close races in Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Indiana. Arkansas and Kentucky elect Republicans in close races, but an improvement in the national atmosphere put California, Illinois, Gillibrand's New York seat, and Connecticut out of reach of Republicans. Harry Reid wins a crazy race in Nevada with the help of a lot of money and weak competition. New Hampshire, Ohio, and Colorado are basically tossups so I guess me coloring them red was just being optimistic.

In Florida, Crist runs as an independent and wins a three-way contest. He decides to remain unaffiliated in the Senate and looks towards a possible independent bid for president in 2016.

I could see North Carolina, Louisiana, and Delaware becoming competitive but Republicans obviously have the advantage in each of these states. I don't think Oregon or Wisconsin will be competitive but races there certainly aren't out of the question. Arizona could also end up being competitive if McCain loses in the primary.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-04-15 @ 07:06:53
Good! Someone else agrees with me about Crist!

By: dgentile (G-NJ) 2010-04-16 @ 18:38:30
Nah, Crist is bluffing to keep money coming in. If he loses primary he won't burn his bridges, but begin to work on Jeb's 2012 campaign. Otherwise, great prediction. I'd add KY and NC to toss-up / turbulent category. Last Edit: 2010-04-16 @ 18:38:49

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-04-17 @ 06:47:39
Well lots can happen between now and November...this is a possible scenario but more likely wishful thinking and dreaming which I like to do in the spring!

By: nkpatel1279 (D-MA) 2010-04-17 @ 14:38:18
If the economy recovers. AR(Lincoln-R) will remain in the Lean or Likely Republican category. Red State with a top tier GOP. State will vote of cultural issues will supersede economic issues. CA(Boxer-D) will move into the Likely Democratic category. CO(Bennet-D) will move into Lean Democatic category. DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D) will remain in the Lean or Likely Republican category- due to Castle-R incumbency advantage. FL(OPEN-Crist-R)-remains a 3 way tossup. GA(Isakson-R)will move into Lean Republican category-assuming Thurmond-D is the DEM Nominee. IL(OPEN-Burris-D)-will move remain in the Lean Democratic category. State is a Blue State and Obama's Home State- so the National Democratic Party get any more popular in IL. But Democratic Nominee-Giannoulias-D carries a lot of negative baggage- race will remain highly competive but Giannoulias-D will ride the IL State Wide Democratic Party wave.(Quinn-Simon,Madigan,White,plus DEM nominees for Comptroller and Treasurer). IN(OPEN-Bayh-D)will remain in the Tossup category. IN is still a red state and Coats-R is somewhat of an incumbent in the race. but Ellsworth-D will do well with Reagan Democratic voters. KY(OPEN-Bunning-R)will remain in the Lean or Likely Republican collumn. Like AR- cultural issues supersede econonic issues. MO(OPEN-Bond-R) moves into a Lean Democratic Takeover. NV(Reid-D)remains in the Tossup category. Reid-D is still going to be heavily targeted by Republicans but He will do better with Independents and Democrats. NH(OPEN-Gregg-R)remains in the Tossup category. GOP nominee Ayotte-R appeals to Pro Choice Female voters in the General election. NC(Burr-R) remains in the Lean Republican category- it is still a red state. Burr-R is a generic Republican incumbent. OH and PA will move into the Lean Democratic category. WA and WI will remain in the Likely Democratic category. Polarizing Democratic incumbent in Blue States facing Generic Republican opposition.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	4	131	179	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	2	159	101	T	423
2016 President	48/56	23/56	71/112	63.4%	3	222	552	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	2	222	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	7/12	16/24	66.7%	2	375	25	T	279
2014 Senate	30/36	16/36	46/72	63.9%	5	243	273	T	382
2014 Governor	26/36	13/36	39/72	54.2%	4	214	253	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	158	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	44/56	99/112	88.4%	1	54	146	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	18/33	49/66	74.2%	1	42	128	T	343
2010 Senate	26/37	15/37	41/74	55.4%	2	201	375	T	456
2010 Governor	28/37	14/37	42/74	56.8%	1	353	230	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	100	92	T	103
2008 President	54/56	40/56	94/112	83.9%	13	152	115	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	16/33	48/66	72.7%	4	152	172	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	228	50	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	7/52	7/52	14/104	13.5%	1	-	216	T	271
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	97	58	T	167
Aggregate Predictions	476/587	305/587	781/1174	66.5%