Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:73

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	26
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	9
Rep	24
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	8	3	11	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	0	0	0	10	8	18	+8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	11	38	49
Republican	26	23	49
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
54	34	20

Analysis

GOP gains of 8-9... possibly only 7, possibly 10... It appears that Manchin is back on top in WV and Buck and Angle are slightly ahead in CO and NV, respectively... WA is coming down to the wire with recent polls not looking good for Murray... Boxer looks like she has pulled it out again in CA... Not sure about Alaska between Murkowski and Miller.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: doniki80 (I-OH) 2010-11-01 @ 09:45:18
GOP pickups 60-70... Dems will be lucky if they keep losses to 55.. could be in the 70's Lean Dem Pickups: DE-AL, HI-1, LA-2 Lean GOP, could be competitive: AZ-3, IL-10, FL-25 Lean GOP Pickups: AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, AZ-5, AZ-8, CA-11, CA-20, CO-3, CO-4, CT-5, FL-2, FL-8, FL-22, FL-24, GA-8, IL-11, IL-14, IL-17, IN-8, IN-9, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MI-9, MS-1, MS-4, NC-2, NC-7, NC-8, NC-11, ND-AL, NH-1, NJ-3, NM-2, NY-19, NY-20, NY-23, NY-29, NV-3, OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, OR-5, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, SD-AL, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, TX-23 VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, WA-3, WI-7, WI-8, WV-1 Lean Dem/Could be competitive: AR-4, AZ-7, CA-18, CA-47, CT-4, CO-7, GA-2, GA-12, IA-1, IA-2, IA-3, ID-1, IL-8, IN-2, MA-4, MA-10, ME-1, ME-2, MI-15, MN-1, MN-8, MO-4, MS-2, NC-4, NH-2, NM-1, NM-3, NY-1, NY-13, NY-22, NY-24, NY-25, OH-6, PA-4, PA-12, TX-27, VA-11, WA-2, WA-6, WA-9, WI-3

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					245
2020 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	30	6	260	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	22/35	55/70	78.6%	16	4	66	T	423
2018 Senate	33/35	23/35	56/70	80.0%	25	1	42	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	24/36	56/72	77.8%	21	3	94	T	372
2016 President	51/56	36/56	87/112	77.7%	53	1	35	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	18/34	50/68	73.5%	33	1	89	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	5/12	15/24	62.5%	5	1	47	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	17/36	51/72	70.8%	56	0	200	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	13/36	43/72	59.7%	40	0	192	T	300
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	96	1	47	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	26	2	20	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	16/52	6/52	22/104	21.2%	3	-	187	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	20/37	54/74	73.0%	73	1	151	T	456
2010 Governor	36/37	19/37	55/74	74.3%	50	2	118	T	312
2008 President	53/56	46/56	99/112	88.4%	80	1	26	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	16	4	117	T	407
2008 Dem Primary	46/52	26/52	72/104	69.2%	10	-	7	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	10/49	3/49	13/98	13.3%	1	-	195	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	624/741	404/741	1028/1482	69.4%