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Date of Prediction: 2010-06-01 Version:3

Prediction Map
theglobalizer Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
theglobalizer Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem9
 
pie
Rep27
 
Ind0
 
Non1
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem8
 
pie
Rep20
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non1
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-5-9819-9
Rep+4+5+900011718+9
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic93847
Republican272350
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
413011
piepiepie

Analysis

Switch WA to GOP (I like Rossi's chances in this climate) and CA to DEM (now assuming Fiorina is the candidate and she's much weaker than Campbell). Firmed Gillibrand in NY, softened up a few other states, but still think most tossups will favor the GOP based on enthusiasm.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-06-01 @ 17:54:08 prediction Map
WA??? Really???

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-06-01 @ 19:01:36 prediction Map
The most recent polls have a one point lead for Dem in WA so I can see it as a loss but my gut feeling tells me it will be a toss up all through summer...if they fix the oil spill and economy improves the dems may save a few...

however right now both houses are within GOP reach

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-06-01 @ 20:53:26 prediction Map
I like this map. A lot. I would be most happy with this on election day.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-06-01 @ 21:31:13 prediction Map
I wouldn't like this map to be reality on election day...

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-06-02 @ 00:05:50 prediction Map
Murray isn't going to lose; Rossi is 0 for 2 when it comes to major elections. Murray has won all 3 of her past elections with comfortable margins, this year should be no different in Democratic-leaning WA.
Toomey isn't going to win because he's to far right for PA, a consistently blue state. Sestak overcame a 38 point deficit to oust Specter; he's obviously a great campaigner. Toomey would be Santorum all over again. Sestak won re-election by 20 points in his Republican-leaning district.
I don't think Reid will lose either; the Dems learned from Daschle's defeat so I expect the NV race to heat up and Reid to pull ahead by November. Plus Reid has an astronomical funding advantage; he has more in the bank than Boxer yet he represents a state 14 times smaller than hers.
MO isn't going GOP either...you can talk to KS21 about MO!

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-02 @ 14:25:33 prediction Map
In Nevada, Reid is going to have his butt pounded by a woman (Lowden or Angle). Once the GOP primary is over, it will be open season on Reid, and he's got a record to exploit. Reid is a big target.

I think Murray will win, but it won't be a cakewalk for her.

Sestak is clinging to a lead, but he has problems...

I mean this map is one where just about everything falls the GOP's way...I've never had the GOP up by 9 seats this year. This would be their dream haul.

Missouri should stay GOP.




 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-02 @ 14:26:46 prediction Map
KS21, of course you wouldn't, you continue to keep NC and MO in the Dem column; I don't know why you maintain these positions.

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-02 @ 14:30:02 prediction Map
Dnul, the economy ain't getting better, the oil spill won't be cleaned up for a while. The Democrats better just pray to God at this point. Although on the lighter side, I'm buying BP stock, I think this oil spill has caused the company to be oversold, I think the price will snap back, and I'll reap a quick profit.

 By: nkpatel1279 (D-MA) 2010-06-02 @ 14:32:15 prediction Map
The NV US Senate Race is going to be similar to the 1994 VA US Senate Race between Chuck Robb and Ollie North.
Chuck Robb-VA was an unpopular DEM incumbent facing re-election- but his GOP challenger-Ollie North- was just as bad. The Independent or Republican leaning Indepedents voted for the Marshall Coleman-(IND).

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-02 @ 14:35:42 prediction Map
NKPATEL1279, who is going to be the Marshall Coleman of the Nevada race?

 By: Olawakandi (D-IL) 2010-06-02 @ 14:36:45 prediction Map
Ollie North was charged with war crimes in the Reagan era, no ethical problems with Lowden.

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-02 @ 14:41:46 prediction Map
I also think, and I pointed this out earlier regarding the 1994 Virginia Senate race, the establishment GOP was actively working against North. Here, Lowden and Angle will get full support, plus Tea Party support, plus a lot of support outsiders who want to see Reid gone.

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-02 @ 14:44:50 prediction Map
Nevada will be a top, if not the top Senate race for the GOP. Think about it, as far as pick up opportunities go, this one is going to become the biggest, because Arkansas, North Dakota, and Indiana, are basically over now, and Nevada is the next most likely pick up that is still competitive.

 By: Olawakandi (D-IL) 2010-06-02 @ 16:34:03 prediction Map
He, nkpatel defended Lowden winning on his map yesterday and today he has Reid winning, whatever day he feels like switching Nevada, is the day he defends Nevada.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-06-02 @ 17:20:25 prediction Map
BC, I explained to you a long time ago my reasoning on NC and MO.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-06-02 @ 17:27:10 prediction Map
Also, it wouldn't bring tears to my eyes if Burr won NC. I really couldn't care less unless the result from NC would allow the GOP to retake the Senate, then I would have a problem with Burr winning.

In MO, although I am biased, I stand by my very reasonable logic on how Carnahan could win the seat.

Last Edit: 2010-06-03 @ 18:20:48

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-03 @ 09:31:58 prediction Map
nkpatel has a future as a politico, even though I still really enjoy nkpatel's analysis.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 49/56 38/56 87/112 77.7% pie 3 8 561T
P 2012 Senate 26/33 16/33 42/66 63.6% pie 3 8 237T
P 2012 Governor 8/11 6/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 132 157T
P 2011 Governor 2/4 0/4 2/8 25.0% pie 1 158 100T
P 2010 Senate 30/37 11/37 41/74 55.4% pie 3 154 375T
P 2008 President 50/56 34/56 84/112 75.0% pie 6 2 382T
P 2008 Dem Primary 30/52 0/52 30/104 28.8% pie 1 - 150T
P 2008 Rep Primary 30/49 3/49 33/98 33.7% pie 1 - 113T
Aggregate Predictions 225/298 108/298 333/596 55.9% pie



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